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The energy resources and raw materials of the Third World are as vulnerable to the disruptions of regional politics as they are essential to the economies of the industrial West. Thus the current fears about the potential threat to Pakistan from Soviet legions on the other side of the Khyber Pass in Afghanistan may give way within a few years to even deeper dismay over Pakistan's seeming inability to heal its ethnic divisions, curb its birth rate and ultimately feed its people. The collapse of Pakistan from within—and Pakistan is just one example—could have serious repercussions throughout its region: renewed warfare with India over Kashmir, say, or the spread of tribal warfare into Iran.
It is conceivable that World War III could start with the U.S. and Soviet Union taking sides, however reluctantly, in such a regional brawl. One possible site is the volatile Horn of Africa, where the forces of instability are as much demographic as geopolitical; famine and tribal vendettas might turn out to be as destructive as Kremlin scheming. The superpowers might be drawn in, since Soviet as well as Cuban forces are entrenched in Ethiopia, while the U.S. Rapid Deployment Force has access to bases in Ethiopia's hostile neighbor, Somalia.
In short, helping LDCS head off disaster—much like a sophisticated human rights policy —is not just a humanitarian ideal but a matter of reality. Unfortunately, foreign aid is now the object of widespread disillusionment both at home and abroad.
Retiring World Bank President Robert McNamara and former Secretary of State Cyrus Vance in their valedictories last year both decried that trend as "disgraceful." And so it may be. Foreign aid is not a "giveaway" but an indispensable tool of U.S. policy. But the public attitude is also understandable, given the galling hypocrisy of Third World leaders who ritualistically excoriate the U.S. even as they accept American handouts. Inevitably, perhaps, the U.S. is widely identified with the prosperous and often profligate elites of poor countries.
That fact alone largely explains why there are so few self-styled popular political forces in the Third World that are unabashedly pro-American. Happily, one such rarity emerged triumphant in last year's Jamaican elections, which brought Prime Minister Edward Seaga to power.
Despite their rhetoric, many Third World leaders recognize that the "imperialist" West is far better able than the "progressive" East bloc to help in their economic development. As decolonialization, like colonialism before it, fades in Third World memories, economic development may gradually replace armed struggle as the order of the day. Even Fidel Castro last year warned his proteges, the Sandinistas of Nicaragua, to beware of Cuba's mistake of mortgaging the country's economy to the U.S.S.R. in exchange for an ideological blessing, military aid and political support.
In asking for Western economic assistance, the Third World —an artificial term that lumps together countries with quite different economic and political philosophies—must readjust some overly ambitious goals.