The Workforce: Where Will the New Jobs Come From?

The worst recession in generations torpedoed 8.4 million U.S. jobs. Getting them back and creating employment means understanding what makes the economy tick

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Jeff Wilson for TIME

Michael Kim landed his job as HomeAway expands to meet growing demand for its online house-rental service.

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Austin provides a useful lesson in how to stay on top of the innovation game. Start with an educated population (43% of Austin residents have a bachelor's degree or higher), mix in a robust venture-capital scene (one of the best outside Silicon Valley), add a supportive community of peers (groups like Bootstrap Austin band together hundreds of entrepreneurs) and wrap all that up with a state government unafraid to throw money at companies that need a little help getting off the ground.

Over at the University of Texas, the nonprofit Austin Technology Incubator houses fledgling firms, plying them with business-plan advice, contact with financiers and lots of coffee over which to share ideas and solve problems. The incubator's 20-year record: more than 200 companies and thousands of jobs created. "Companies don't start unless they're resourced," says Rob Neville, who launched one company with the help of the incubator and is now scaling up another, Savara Pharmaceuticals, in anticipation of support from the Texas Emerging Technology Fund.

These new companies are key to job growth. People talk about small businesses being such great generators of jobs, but a more precise assessment is that young businesses are. John Haltiwanger, an economist at the University of Maryland, has been studying government data for 25 years and has determined that about a third of all new jobs created come from start-ups. Furthermore, young companies add jobs faster. From 1980 to 2005, the typical 15-year-old firm added jobs at a rate of 1% a year, the typical three-year-old firm at a rate of 5%. "These are the rocket ships of the economy," says Haltiwanger.

Of course, young firms are also more likely to flame out and vaporize their jobs--but job destruction is, perhaps surprisingly, par for the course no matter what the size of a company. Even in the recession, about 4 million people a month have been landing jobs. We just don't feel the impact of that because more people have been losing them, leaving us with fewer employed people overall. That constant churn can be jarring for individual workers, but it represents one of the key strengths of the American economy: flexibility. That's certainly true for established companies too.

To see why that matters, stop by Ringdale, a company in the northern Austin suburb of Georgetown. One of Ringdale's main business lines used to be security systems, but as the construction of new buildings has remained depressed, so have sales of things like the ID-card readers that go inside them. Ringdale's response: throw more resources, including employees, at its burgeoning line of light-emitting-diode products, for which it holds a number of patent applications, thereby answering increased demand for low-energy commercial lighting. "We've redeployed," says CEO Klaus Bollmann, whose firm will open one plant expansion in a few months (accounting for an additional 10 to 15 jobs) and a second, larger one next year (120 more jobs). As the economy shifts, reinvent.

That good advice isn't just for companies.

Rewiring the Workforce

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