Michael Kim landed his job as HomeAway expands to meet growing demand for its online house-rental service.
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To see that dynamic in action in Austin, cut diagonally across the street from HomeAway and pop into the headquarters of Whole Foods. For a decade, the upscale grocery chain saw sales grow at about 20% annually. Last year, sales barely budged up 1%--and the 30 stores that executives planned to open around the country were trimmed to 15. Those 15 stores added nearly 4,000 jobs--just half as many as would have been gained had people kept buying organic peppers and salted caramels at the same pace. "There's too much thinking about how to create jobs," says James Manyika, a director of the economics-research outfit McKinsey Global Institute, "and not enough about how to create demand."
Why is that? Well, focusing on demand is a tricky thing to do. For decades, the economy's engine of demand has been American consumers--a population now overindebted, underemployed and endowed with a newfound sense of thrift. The explosion in credit-card and home-mortgage debt before the recession tells us the demand that was there was never sustainable. This is why the President now talks about doubling exports over the next five years and the importance of passing trade agreements with countries like South Korea, Panama and Colombia. If we can't sell to ourselves, there is at least partial salvation in selling to others.
It's also the reason the job-creation bill passed by Congress includes an accelerated tax break for companies buying equipment. Companies that sell equipment need people to build it, and companies that buy equipment need people to run and maintain it. Many firms outside of financial services have surprisingly solid balance sheets, Manyika points out, and might be wooed into investing sooner rather than later. That would drum up sales for the firms they'd be buying equipment from.
That prime-the-pump logic is also behind the use of the government to create demand--what we know as stimulus spending. Last year's $787 billion American Recovery and Reinvestment Act has received its fair share of criticism for funds being dispersed too slowly and for not doing enough to stem unemployment. But in Austin, Bruce Matous has a different point of view. "This saved my family business," says the president of Matous Construction.
Matous is referring to a $28 million contract to upgrade the Hornsby Bend Biosolids Management Plant, a city-owned facility that recycles sewage sludge and yard clippings into lawn fertilizer. The city desperately needed to upgrade its 1980s-built anaerobic digesters (you can see the foam insulation chipping off) and now has the money to do so, thanks to a 30-year interest-free loan from the federal stimulus package. To get the project funded, the city applied to the Texas Water Development Board, which had been handed stimulus money by the Environmental Protection Agency.