The Workforce: Where Will the New Jobs Come From?

The worst recession in generations torpedoed 8.4 million U.S. jobs. Getting them back and creating employment means understanding what makes the economy tick

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Jeff Wilson for TIME

Michael Kim landed his job as HomeAway expands to meet growing demand for its online house-rental service.

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Driving around Hornsby Bend, Matous points to a group of half a dozen workmen and says, "We would have laid off all those guys." The construction industry has been brutalized in Austin, as it has been nationally, and by the end of last year, Matous was looking at just a few more months of work in the pipeline. Then he won the Hornsby Bend contract. Now the company is fielding job applications from people 200 miles away and is creating business for other firms, from the equipment maker Caterpillar to R&R Industries, a California outfit that makes yellow safety vests and just sold a couple hundred of them to Matous.

Injecting money into the system--whether through consumer spending, business investment or stimulus funds--is a short-term fix designed to get the gears moving again. That re-establishment of momentum is an important part of economic recovery. But getting things moving isn't the same as keeping them moving. In the long term, there is only one way to create enough jobs for the economy: innovation.

Start-up Nation

Twenty miles South of Austin, in a nondescript industrial park, sits a bland, corrugated-metal building with a roll-up door. Inside the building sits the future of the U.S. economy.

Or at least part of the future. Five and a half years ago, the lights went on at Xtreme Power with half a dozen employees and a vision to make wind power an easier sell. One of the big stumbling blocks in persuading utilities to buy wind is its unpredictability. The wind blows, and then it stops, while utilities' customers demand a constant flow of power. Xtreme's solution: a shipping-container-size power-management system that takes in energy from wind farms, stores it and then smoothly releases an uninterrupted supply of it out the other end.

That innovation carries real economic value. Wind-farm operators want to sell more power, and they'll pay for something that helps them do that. As a result, jobs are created. Xtreme, which employed 57 people at the beginning of 2009, installed its first major system in Hawaii over the summer and now has $100 million worth of orders in the pipeline. The firm currently employs 105 people and is again looking to grow. Its plan is to buy a factory in Wixom, Mich., that Ford shut down in 2007.

It's the dream scenario of the green-technology revolution: a plant that used to make Lincoln Continentals starts churning out the mechanical apparatus of wind-power storage. Michigan autoworkers, knocked off their feet by a collapsing industry, put their skills to use in the quintessential "industry of tomorrow." Once those high-value manufacturing jobs are in place and a group of workers has money to spend, other jobs follow--at doughnut shops, hair salons, real estate brokerages, and law firms.

Green jobs are hardly the economic cure-all they are often made out to be. They currently account for only about 0.5% of the U.S. workforce, and plenty of the industry's job growth is likely to happen overseas. China is already the world's largest manufacturer of solar panels. But the model provided by green-energy players is the right one: create new products and new markets, and watch new jobs flow. Without the personal computer, we wouldn't have Google and its 20,000 employees. Without everyday low-cost pricing, we wouldn't have Walmart and its 2.1 million.

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