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Meanwhile, many Republicans can't stomach the extent to which the agenda of the Christian right has become the agenda of the Republican Party. Thus some of Powell's friends and supporters argue that he should run as a Republican. Although the best G.O.P. operatives have already signed on with other candidates who have raised tens of millions of dollars, Dole has not caught fire, and many Republicans who back him publicly are "for Dole for now," in the words of one Powell booster. New Hampshire permits independents-more than 30% of the electorate-to vote in the G.O.P. primary, and Powell could draw enough of them to upset calculations of victory based on likely Republican voters. Other states, including Georgia, Texas, Massachusetts, Tennessee, Illinois, Michigan and Ohio, have primaries where non-Republicans can vote, and to Powell backers, his strong showing in those states will convince party faithful that he in some ways is just like Ike: not conservative enough for their tastes but powerful enough to beat Bill Clinton. This scenario has two weaknesses. First, most Republicans think they can beat Bill Clinton without Colin Powell and could turn on Powell like a virus. Second, to give up his happily settled life to contest the G.O.P. nomination, Powell will have to see Dole's juggernaut falter -- and falter by autumn if Powell is to have enough time to organize.
At the least, Powell enthusiasts say, the general could easily come second in a bunch of primaries and assemble enough delegates to be a bargaining force at the convention. But that would probably get him the vice-presidential nomination, and he may well get that without doing anything.
The Dole campaign has discussed the vice presidency with Powell's friends. A Dole-Powell ticket could be bad news for Bill Clinton, because of the general's popularity and because Powell would probably attract significant numbers of black votes in crucial states where Clinton will need to win. Powell would be the perfect vice-presidential candidate for any Republican nominee. The trouble is that he would be only that: Vice President. And Powell himself has doubts about taking that job.
Perhaps the more plausible route to a Powell presidency would be through an independent candidacy, running right in the middle of the American ideological spectrum, without the taint of party politics, as a military leader with his own ideas and with a government of national reconciliation composed of talented people from both parties.
This course obviously has some allure for Powell and his friends. He dismisses much of the Democratic Party's politics as brain dead and thinks the Republican right is too extreme on many social issues. The experience of Ross Perot in 1992 is not lost on them either. That so flawed a candidate as Perot could get on the ballot in 50 states and gather 19% of the national vote, having quit the race once when he was nearly tied with Bush and Clinton, is seen as proof that an independent race is not just a fantasy.