THE COLIN POWELL FACTOR

THE POLLS SHOW HE COULD WIN THE PRESIDENCY. BUT IS HE BOLD ENOUGH TO GO FOR THE TOP JOB AND TAKE ON THE POLITICAL ESTABLISHMENT?

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Powell carries a basic set of old- fashioned, conservative social values -- he is against sending women into combat, and fought against letting gays serve openly in the military. But he is adding specific and fairly centrist views on other hot-button issues. He is basically pro-choice, against the proposed flag-burning amendment and a supporter of Medicare, which helped him care for both his parents in their final years. On affirmative action he makes a nuanced distinction. While he is against programs that give advantages to people who no longer need them, he supports programs that recognize that "racism has been unfortunately an ingrained part of our society for a couple of hundred years."

Unlike politicians with long and detailed records, Powell has not had to vote yes or no, not had to enunciate positions in sufficient detail to stand up to real scrutiny and tough debate. He thus runs the risk of seeming naive and unknowing when the public debate sharpens.

Yet the details of his positions may be less decisive than the overall presence he projects. Says Democratic pollster Peter Hart: "Voting for a legislator, we say, 'I've got problems with him on this or that issue.' But voting for a President, we say, 'What kind of a leader will this person be? Do I trust this person? Does he have the toughness to govern?'"

In other words, does he have the force of will to propel himself into the main arena of national politics and the steeliness to be a good President? Even though Powell spent his life as a warrior, he never looked for fights. His success was as a bureaucrat, and a very careful one at that. "Powell is not an innovator," says a four-star general who served with him. "He is a wonderful man, but he is a solid, dependable, reliable tinkerer at the margins."

Many critics cite Powell's reluctance to go to war against Iraq and his agreement to end the war before Saddam Hussein and his army were wiped out. As Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, Powell had the chance to fundamentally reshape the armed forces for its post-cold war role. Instead he produced a timid and unimaginative plan that trimmed but did not reform the military. Yet he is a skillful facilitator and is seen as "an honest broker who can get things done." This does not make him a general in the mold of Eisenhower. But even the four-star general who calls Powell a tinkerer concludes that "I would vote for him if he runs."

But before voters can pass judgment on those issues, the immediate question is, How can Powell enter the presidential race?

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