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The current dynamic of two-party politics in America has forced candidates for both the Republican and the Democratic nominations to play heavily to their core constituencies, which are, respectively, more conservative and more liberal than the electorate at large. These are the activists who vote most reliably in the primaries. Bob Dole, for example, veers increasingly rightward to bolster his support among the Christian right. Bill Clinton, despite his recent decision to back a balanced budget, has worked hard to please leftish groups like labor, the National Organization for Women and environmentalists to make sure he would not be challenged from the left for the nomination. But the tension between attempting to be a general-election centrist and a primary-campaigning liberal has added to Clinton's image as chronic waffler. A similar tension will also make Dole try to retreat from his recent rightward tilt if he is nominated and has to campaign against Clinton.
The pull of the more activist wings of each party has left both parties incapable of finding and holding the political center. At one point George Bush had a 91% approval rating, but he still lost the presidency. Bill Clinton became President without a majority in 1992, and then his party suffered historic losses in the 1994 elections. The Republicans in Congress, only 71Ú2 months after their landslide victory, are now supported by only 34% of the public on their handling of budget issues in the Time/cnn poll. Observes Powell: "The American people are channel surfing. And you're going to channel surf in '96, '98, 2000, until you find something you like."
While political experts have been predicting a profound political realignment to replace the New Deal consensus that lasted two generations, what exists today is closer to a dealignment, with shifting allegiances and only loose party identification. It is in that context that a Powell candidacy could be most powerful.
Many of the centrist Democrats who backed Clinton in 1992, and whose ideas and policies let him escape the lethal tag of "liberal" in that campaign, are disappointed with Clinton's failure to lead in that direction. The President, however, is not likely to be challenged from within his own party, leaving some centrists hoping for another candidate.