(4 of 4)
Jordan's Rehabilitation. The great survivor has survived again -- just barely. Washington will eventually welcome King Hussein back into the fold despite his pro-Saddam sympathies, though it is not yet prepared to restore his $55 million 1991 aid package, suspended last month. The Saudis are less forgiving. For them, says a U.S. diplomat, Hussein "has to pay a readmission price, perform some act of obeisance." In a newspaper interview last week, Prince Bandar said those who leaned toward Saddam "must openly admit they were wrong."
In a speech last week, the King did not bow so far, but he did make a plea for reconciliation. Mending bridges with the Saudis is vital for Jordan's shattered economy: in addition to cutting off aid, which amounted to $200 million last year, Riyadh has refused to resume preferential oil sales to Jordan.The U.S. will press the Saudis to be lenient toward the King lest he be toppled. Despite everything, Washington prefers Hussein to the more radical regime that might replace him.
Iran's Reintegration. A Western diplomat in Riyadh calls Iranian President Hashemi Rafsanjani's performance during the gulf conflict a "tour de force." By offering sanctuary to Iraqi planes, he mollified his troublesome right wing. By not returning them, he won points with the allies; he may also get to keep the jets as partial reparation for losses sustained by Iran in its own war with Iraq. In general, Iran's neutrality brought the country some international respectability, and even Washington is assessing the possibility of more cordial relations.
Like it or not, Iran will insist on a role in the region as payment for its restraint. Iraq's weakness makes Iran stronger, threatening the old balance of power among the big Middle Eastern states. A more confident Tehran could clash with Saudi Arabia over oil-pricing policy. But the country needs Western cooperation to resuscitate its economy, and the U.S. hopes that will encourage continued good behavior.
For all he had wrong, Saddam had one thing right -- that the Middle East was due for some major refurbishing. Religious hatred, excessive militarization, economic inequities and entrenched feudalism combine to make it a nasty neighborhood. The region has long been -- and remains -- violence-prone, politically archaic, oppressive. The jolt of the gulf war, however, may change the physics for a moment. "Maybe the shock," says British Foreign Secretary Douglas Hurd, "will enable people to think afresh, more constructively." Just as the allies seized the moment to finish off Saddam's army, so too should they seize the opportunity to make lasting changes in Middle Eastern politics.