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In one view, the region has already been made safer. "No one should underestimate the deterrent power of this war," says John Roper, military analyst at the Western European Union. "This victory is likely to make any other dictator think twice before he upsets the balance."
But for the gulf states -- ripe targets with their oil riches and sparse populations -- a doctrine of deterrence is not comfort enough. They intend never to be at risk again. In a meeting in Damascus this week, Egypt and Syria, which have emerged as regional strongmen, and the six gulf states will consider plans for creating an Arab security force to bolster the defenses of the gulf countries. They envision a semipermanent troop, made up mostly of Egyptians and Syrians.
A more basic source of the region's volatility, however, is its huge oversupply of arms. Israel has demanded that Iraq be stripped of all missiles and nonconventional weapons, but Baghdad is hardly the only possessor of a potent arsenal. Israel and Saudi Arabia have each obtained new high-tech weaponry during the war, and Syria, concerned that the strategic balance has tipped farther in Israel's direction, may seek to accelerate its military program.
The U.S. and Britain will continue to push for strict embargoes on military sales to Iraq. But an arms-control agreement for the entire Middle East is not high on anyone's agenda -- and even if it were, it would be unlikely to be realized. As long as Arabs and Israelis believe another war is inevitable, neither side is at all disposed to reduce arms.
The Arab-Israeli Conflict. Everyone agrees this is the No. 1 problem, the throbbing wound at the heart of the Middle East, which must be healed before the region can truly find peace. Expectations are high that the new bonds between the U.S. and moderate Arab states offer the best opportunity yet for a comprehensive settlement. If only there were as much concord on the answer.
There are few new ideas, but there is fresh interest in pursuing some of the familiar ones. France and the Soviet Union are urging the U.N. Security Council to convene an international conference, but nothing has altered Israel's refusal to attend such a gathering. Washington is proposing instead that the Arab states negotiate directly with Israel on state-to-state peace treaties, just as Israel and Egypt did in the late 1970s. If its Arab neighbors indicate a willingness to live in peace with the Jewish state, the argument goes, Israel might be willing to make concessions to the Palestinians.
But prospects for a resolution of the Palestinian problem are as dim as they have ever been. Yes, the U.S. is committed to pushing extra hard for Israeli flexibility, to pay back Arab governments for their support of the coalition and to cement American credibility in the Arab world. But even Israel's No. 1 patron cannot make Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir budge unless he chooses to. And he does not. "We shall stand firm," says Shamir, against "attempts to establish a new pattern of Middle East arrangements."