The postwar era is suddenly upon us, arriving like a weekend guest on a Thursday train, sooner than expected. No longer are topics like collective security, political reform and assuaging popular fury in the Middle East the stuff of theoretical rumination. Instead, they are the pressing matters of the day, and their disposition will ultimately determine the region's shape far more than did last week's redrawing of the line that separates Iraq from Kuwait.
In the Middle East, political victories are as important as military ones, and often harder to achieve. Last week President Bush promised there would be "no solely American answer" to the troubles that bedevil the region, but his challenge is to devise a game plan for peacemaking that is as effective as Operation Desert Storm was in war. The partners in the coalition will be looking to Washington to provide a strong lead in securing what Bush also called "a potentially historic peace."
The allies' triumph in the field does make some things easier. The battle was quick enough to prevent the coalition from fragmenting and pro-Saddam passions from boiling over. Yet it lasted long enough to give the allies time to truncate Iraq's military, neutralizing its mischiefmaking potential for some time to come. And by forcing Saddam to swallow bitter terms for a cease- fire, the allies have stripped him of his appeal as an Arab he-man.
Still, this good fortune is not irreversible. When it becomes plain just how badly Iraq has been mauled, Arab rage may again threaten the calm. The coalition, no longer unified by the single aim of liberating Kuwait, will lose cohesion as its members compete to realize their own visions of the future, each guided by a unique set of interests that at some points must clash. Already differences are emerging: the Soviets, for instance, want a better deal for their old client Iraq than the West does, and the Arabs and Europeans want to be tougher on Israel than the U.S. does.
Nevertheless, all the parties to the war share an interest in grappling with key issues:
Regional Security. The immediate focus is to prevent Iraq -- or another Iraq -- from waging war again. Everyone favors some kind of regional security apparatus, and nearly everyone agrees it should be mainly Arab. The Western allies are emphatic about extricating their troops quickly to reduce pressure on the Arab partners from citizens angry over the presence of former colonialists and infidels. But the West will continue to lend silent support to the gulf regimes, leaving equipment behind in case allied forces need to return. The longstanding U.S. naval presence in the gulf will be increased, as will joint military exercises with regional states.
Yet the main safeguards will have to be local. To secure Kuwait, Washington's preliminary idea is to establish, at least temporarily, a demilitarized zone on the Iraq-Kuwait border. Arab forces, mainly Egyptian and Syrian, would police Kuwait's side, and U.N. peacekeeping troops would monitor the DMZ. One kink is that the border remains disputed, and an indignant Kuwait refuses to negotiate the matter with Iraq.