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The main challenge will be finding some accommodation on Star Wars. The Soviets have inched away from their across-the-board opposition to Strategic Defense Initiative research by hinting that they might permit some testing, perhaps even in space. Kissinger argues that finding a middle ground is impossible because Washington's goal is to deploy SDI and Moscow's goal is to do away with the program; a long delay, he argues, would in effect kill it. But Schlesinger, who does not believe that a delay in deploying SDI would necessarily be fatal to the program, says the outline of a grand compromise is already in place: "No deployment of SDI for ten to 15 years, carefully specified limitations on the testing of components outside the laboratory, and a 50% reduction in offensive weapons carefully contrived to reduce concern about a first strike."
The Third World. New military agreements, as important as they are, would not be a true test of whether Gorbachev's words signify a real transformation of the cold war. That would require a tangible change in the Soviet Union's expansionist use of force, especially in the Third World. University of Michigan Professor Matthew Evangelista writes in the Nation magazine that in the new edition of the Communist Party program, "Soviet support for national liberation movements has changed from promises of economic and military assistance to expressions of 'profound sympathy.' "
The Soviets have, in fact, seemed somewhat cautious about the military support they now provide Nicaragua. But so far Moscow has been unwilling to abandon the Sandinistas or other Third World clients, claiming that U.S. aid to anti-Marxist forces prevents peaceful settlement of local conflicts. As Oliver North argued in his testimony last week, Cuban troops, serving as the Soviet "mercenary army," are stationed in Nicaragua, Angola, Mozambique, Ethiopia and South Yemen. Testing the Soviets' true intentions will be tricky; the manipulation of Third World proxies is not an issue that lends itself to formal negotiations. Assistant Secretary Ridgway has been overseeing a series & of talks, initiated at Reykjavik, aimed at resolving regional disputes. "So far," she says, "nothing new of substance has emerged."
Afghanistan. One clear-cut case is Afghanistan, which Ridgway calls a "symbol of what is troublesome to the West about Soviet conduct." Gorbachev has proclaimed a desire to withdraw from what he called a "bleeding wound," and the Soviets have even hinted that a national unity government might involve inviting back King Mohammed Zahir Shah, deposed in 1973. Yet their highly publicized pullout of 6,000 troops from Afghanistan last fall was an ill- disguised sham. Other soldiers soon took their place. The crucial test is not whether the Soviets will agree to a cease-fire, which would merely ratify the occupation, but whether they will permit a new government not under Moscow's thumb.