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There are other signs that the Soviets are aiming for a comeback in the Middle East. Having failed to win influence with the Iranian government of Ayatullah Ruhollah Khomeini, Moscow is now strongly backing Iraq, which unlike Iran is Arab, in the 2½-year-old Iran-Iraq war. Egypt, which all but severed diplomatic ties with the Soviet Union in 1981, is on the verge of exchanging ambassadors with Moscow once again. There are even reports that Saudi Arabia's King Fahd has sent a letter to Soviet Leader Yuri Andropov pleading for Soviet help in resolving the Iran-Iraq war. Andropov is said to have made a good impression so far on the moderate Arabs, particularly in contrast with the weak and vacillating Leonid Brezhnev.
Although the U.S. appears to have little chance of bringing about a withdrawal of Syrian troops from Lebanon any time soon, it will press ahead in its dealings with Syria, hoping to find out precisely what Assad's price is. At the same time, the Reagan Administration is trying to persuade moderate Arabs to lend a hand. Shultz stopped over in Saudi Arabia to confer with King Fahd, but the Saudis emerged later with a rather grumpy pronouncement that they would not serve as anyone's "tool." Translation: With their characteristic caution, which often borders on gutlessness, the Saudis are waiting for others to do the work for them. That message came through when President Assad visited Saudi Arabia's King Fahd in Jidda, and was emphasized again when U.S. Defense Secretary Caspar Weinberger met with the Saudi Defense Minister, Prince Sultan, in Paris.
A big question, as Washington steps up its contacts with Syria, is just what the U.S. can offer Assad as an effective inducement. As long as Israel's artillery is within 14 miles of Damascus, an Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon should be the primary incentive. A longer-range Syrian goal is recovery of the Golan Heights. Shultz said last week that he was not "applying" for the job of negotiator between Syria and Lebanon. But once the perimeters of the problem have been established, probably under the guidance of Special Envoy Philip Habib, Shultz may have to embark on another exercise in Middle East shuttle diplomacy. Having pressed the Israelis to leave Lebanon, the U.S. is now obliged to try to persuade the Syrians to uphold their end of the bargain.
—By William E. Smith. Reported by Johanna McGeary/Washington and Roberto Suro/Damascus