Supported by Moscow, Syria backs away from its promise to leave Lebanon
"No war is possible without Egypt, and no peace is possible without Syria." —Henry Kissinger
Sure enough, it was Syria's turn, backed by the Soviet Union, to block the withdrawal of foreign forces from Lebanon. After five months of negotiations, the U.S. had finally extracted an agreement from Israel and Lebanon for a removal of Israel's 30,000 troops in Lebanon. But the deal was based on a simultaneous withdrawal of Syrian and Palestine Liberation Organization forces. When U.S. Secretary of State George Shultz flew to the Syrian capital of Damascus, capping two weeks of shuttle diplomacy that had brought about the Israeli-Lebanese accord, he learned that Syrian President Hafez Assad had a long list of objections.
Lebanese Foreign Minister Elie Salem heard about those objections firsthand when he flew to Damascus late last week, hoping at the very least to talk the Syrians into holding discussions on the subject. He got nowhere. On his return to Beirut, Salem declared gloomily, "We know that President Assad will not accept the agreement." Undeterred, the Lebanese government unanimously approved the accord with Israel the next day.
The Syrians appeared to have embarked on a dangerous game. In the past two months, they have sent an additional 10,000 troops into the Bekaa Valley of eastern Lebanon, increasing their strength to nearly 50,000. At the same time, P.L.O. commandos have slipped back into northern Lebanon, swelling their ranks from 8,000 to at least 10,000. Among them: P.L.O. Chairman Yasser Arafat, who in his first trip back to Lebanon since his forced departure from Beirut last summer reportedly spent a day visiting guerrilla units in the Bekaa Valley. The Syrian war machine, shattered by Israel during last year's righting in Lebanon, has been restocked with bigger and better equipment that requires the presence of 4,800 to 6,000 Soviet military advisers and technicians. In what many diplomats saw as a blatant attempt to heighten tension in the area, the Soviets ostentatiously removed 110 diplomatic dependents from Beirut, as if to indicate that they feared an impending conflict.
The U.S. acknowledged the increase in Syrian and P.L.O. troop strength in Lebanon. Said Shultz after his return to Washington: "First of all, it is a violation of the agreement under which the P.L.O. evacuated Beirut. Second, it is an unwelcome development. We want them to be moving out, not in." In the meantime, the State Department issued a list of statements in which Syria had promised to get out of Lebanon as soon as the Israelis did. On Feb. 14, for example, Syrian Foreign Minister Abdel Halim Khaddam told his French counterpart, Claude Cheysson, that "Syria would withdraw its forces from Lebanon if the Israelis withdrew their troops." U.S. diplomats note that Syrian officials have repeatedly said the same thing to them in private.