Playing Nuclear Poker

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in Central Europe. Also it is because Germany alone is scheduled to receive both the Pershing IIs and the cruise missiles. The Pershings can theoretically hit targets in the western U.S.S.R. less than eight minutes after their liftoff.

Additionally, Germany frightens the Soviets because it is Germany, with all its ghosts of past scourges. Soviet propagandists have been quick to dub the GLCM the "German-launched cruise missile," even though it will be stationed at U.S. military bases that already house nuclear weapons.

In order to head off protests from the militant left, the pro-U.S. Bonn government of Chancellor Helmut Kohl has kept under wraps the exact sites at which the Pershing IIs will be stationed. If the Kohl coalition were to fall in the elections or get cold feet about the missiles, it is nearly certain that the other European countries would follow in domino fashion. As NATO Secretary-General Joseph Luns said last week, "Germany is crucial."

Britain is an uneasy home for the Tomahawk cruise missiles too. On the one hand, it has the closest ties with the U.S. of all the allies, and its Conservative government is ideologically compatible with the Reagan Administration. Prime Minister Thatcher has been a stalwart supporter of Reagan's zero-option proposal, under which he would cancel the planned U.S. missile deployment if the Soviets would agree to dismantle the missiles they already have in place (333 SS-20s plus 280 SS-4s and SS-5s). But last week Thatcher indicated less resolution than she has in the past. "One hopes to achieve the zero option," she told the House of Commons, "but in the absence of that we must achieve balanced numbers." The opposition Labor Party in Britain is vocally anti-deployment. Thatcher may call a general election in October, two months before the first Tomahawks are due to arrive at Greenham Common, 52 miles from London, where a group of women is conducting a round-the-clock "peace camp" against the deployment. Just the remote possibility that a Labor government could come to power is a nightmare for Washington.

Despite its reputation for political chaos, Italy has been remarkably serene and sure about accepting its quota of 112 Tomahawks. Part of the reason is that the powerful Italian Communist Party is trying to project a moderate image and demonstrate its independence from Moscow. The Vatican has been generally tolerant of deployment, despite strong opposition to nuclear weapons from U.S. bishops. Said Pope John Paul II recently: "Dialogue calls for reciprocity. . . in the progressive reduction of armaments, nuclear or conventional, the parties must be equally involved and together travel the various stages of disarmament." Two other countries slated for Tomahawk cruise missiles, Belgium and The Netherlands, have imposed so many conditions and left themselves so many loopholes that it is highly uncertain what they will do in the crunch.

France has played its usual role of NATO's proud and somewhat haughty odd man out. The French have their own nuclear deterrent, and they are not part of the military structure of the alliance. But they are extremely concerned about Soviet superiority in the region and are keeping their fingers crossed that, come the moment of truth at the end of the year, their neighbors do not back away from deployment. Last

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