The stakes get higher and higher in the showdown over missiles in Europe
The Year of the Missile is barely a month gone, yet already the sense of urgency is intense, the diplomatic activity frenzied. French President François Mitterrand and Soviet Foreign Minister Andrei Gromyko were on missions to Bonn last week, and Vice President George Bush will arrive in the West German capital next week. In Britain, Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher set forth her position in the House of Commons; in Rome, the Pope outlined his in an address to the Vatican diplomatic corps. With pressure building on all sides, President Reagan defended his record on arms control at an impromptu press conference and held a publicized meeting the next day with his chief negotiators. "Arms control is the next big issue," said a senior White House aide. "It has to be faced." If anything, he was understating the case.
The issue of such rising prominence—and potentially deadly consequences—hinges on two related enterprises: the North Atlantic Treaty Organization's beleaguered plans to deploy 572 new American missiles in Western Europe, and the superpowers' deadlocked negotiations on Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces (INF). Barring a breakthrough in those talks, which resume this week in Geneva, NATO is committed to begin deploying its missiles by the end of this year. If it fails to meet that deadline, the Western Alliance will have demonstrated to itself and to its adversaries that it is incapable of carrying out the most important collective decision it has made in many years.
Nothing would please the Kremlin more. The single highest priority of Soviet foreign policy in the months ahead is to stop most if not all of the new American weapons from crossing the Atlantic. Toward that end, the Soviets might, if necessary and if possible, cut a last-minute deal with the U.S. on INF. But they have at least as much hope for success through a campaign of pressure and propaganda directed at the Europeans.
Gromyko's four-day visit to West Germany marked yet another Soviet pitch to European public opinion. His timing was no accident: West German parliamentary elections will be held on March 6 (see box), and the arms-control issue may swing the outcome. The election results, in turn, could determine whether the American missile deployment proceeds on schedule, not only in West Germany but in the other NATO countries as well. Gromyko strove to be dovish in Bonn, though he did drop an occasional note of menace. "We cannot ignore the fact," he warned, "that the Federal Republic is the only state due for deployment of Pershing II rockets, which can reach strategic targets deep in the Soviet Union in a few minutes."
On the other side of the Atlantic, Reagan complained at his press conference that to the Soviets, "promises are like piecrusts, made to be broken." Be that as it may, it is clear that the Soviets' skillful propaganda—stressing their peaceful intentions, their willingness to reduce their numbers of missiles aimed at Western Europe and their flexibility at the bargaining table—has convinced many Europeans that the Soviet disarmament goals are genuine. The U.S., known for its Madison Avenue genius, has been put on the defensive. Acknowledging as much, the White House last week announced the formation of