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In return, Israel will be expected not to surprise the U.S. with unilateral military strikes. It will also be urged to use its influence with the Lebanese factions over which it has sway to persuade them to accept national reconciliation. In addition, the U.S. will want Israel to be more forthcoming on negotiations dealing with the future of the West Bank. Washington will also ask Israel to stop protesting loudly about U.S. attempts to maintain good relations and secure arms deals with moderate Arab states. Says a top U.S. diplomat: "Israel has got to understand that cooperation does not mean exclusivity. We can and must be friends with both." Most of all, U.S. officials hope the newly forged bond with Israel will send a fresh signal to Damascus. "Assad has been smelling weakness, and that's bad," notes an Administration official.
Shortly after the bombing of Marine headquarters in Beirut, TIME has learned, intelligence agencies in the area picked up ominous indications that further terrorist attacks were planned, not only against the U.S. compound but against a much bigger target: the ships of the Sixth Fleet, which have been keeping watch off the Lebanese coast. The telltale signs included Syrian naval activity, notably around the military ports of Tartus and Latakia, as well as the movement of SS-21 and SA-5 surface-to-air missiles within Syria itself. It was unclear exactly what the Syrians were up to. Were they steeling themselves for the anticipated U.S. retaliatory strike, or were they in on the planning of further attacks? According to intelligence officials, the Syrian threats were what prompted the U.S. to dispatch additional aircraft carrier groups to the area and to increase the number of reconnaissance flights. Denying that it was motivated by fears of direct Syrian attacks, the U.S. described the deployment of ships in the eastern Mediterranean as routine.
There were other disquieting signals.
Two weeks ago, Syria raised its number of soldiers in Lebanon from 58,500 to 62,000. Two mechanized divisions were moved to the Syrian front on the Golan Heights, and some 30 commando and paratrooper battalions were transferred from Lebanese soil to Syrian airfields. The Israelis became even more alarmed when they learned that the estimated 500 Soviets stationed at the site of an SA-5 missile battery were heading home. One interpretation holds that the Soviets simply had finished training the Syrians to operate the batteries. The worst-case scenario: the Syrians were preparing to go to war and the Soviets did not want to get caught in the middle. Observed an Israeli intelligence official: "Somehow we were calmer when we knew the Soviets were keeping their fingers on the triggers."
The people of Tripoli did not need to muse about war games last week. The real thing, with its blood and terror, was ripping up yet another patch of Lebanon. As the powers squared off and the battle lines blurred, the entire country sometimes seemed fated to disappear in the flames of Middle East passion. French Author Albert Camus once observed that one is always too generous with the blood of others. Lately, the world has been too generous with the blood of the people in Lebanon. —By James Kelly. Reported by Johanna McGeary/Washington and William Stewart/Tripoli