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That still left 1,400 Marines at the airport. The biggest concern: rocket launchers manned by pro-Iranian Lebanese had been trucked into the hills above Beirut and could be capable of hitting Marine positions. According to the reports, the batteries were brought in about a month ago, before the bombing of the Marine compound. Washington has been conferring with the Lebanese government about whether to remove the launchers through negotiation or through a pre-emptive strike, but one Lebanese official left no doubt about the result. Said he: "They have to come out."
Talk of military action raised a more ominous question: whether to retaliate for the Oct. 23 bombing of the Marine headquarters. In his TV speech three weeks ago, Reagan pledged that "those who directed this atrocity must be dealt justice, and they will be." Some U.S. diplomats argue that reprisal would deter future attacks. Said one: "They ought to know the price of another attempt."
Yet retribution carries risks. Although the evidence points to a pair of fanatical Shi'ite Muslim splinter groups with ties to Syria and Iran, the U.S. is not certain exactly who gave the orders. Even if the culprits were known, Washington would not be sure how to strike back. A commando raid or air strike against their headquarters in the Lebanese city of Baalbek, for example, could mushroom into a battle with the Syrians, who control that part of the country.
The U.S., moreover, would reap a bitter diplomatic harvest. Israel, which responded to the Tyre explosion by bombing Palestinian and Syrian military positions, usually can hit back and stay within the brackets of the Middle East military equation. For a superpower, such a response would reverberate dangerously and complicate Washington's other goals. Meeting with U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Kenneth Dam last week, Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher warned that Britain would not support U.S. strikes against Syrian targets. U.S. Special Envoy Donald Rumsfeld, who was appointed to his post two weeks ago, planned to stop in London to see Thatcher before flying on to the Middle East this week.
Perhaps the best argument against retaliation is that it would upset the national reconciliation talks among Lebanon's factions. Before the country's warlords adjourned their meetings in Geneva two weeks ago, they agreed to "freeze" the Israeli-Lebanese troop withdrawal agreement signed last May and instead to focus attention on reshaping the Lebanese political structure, which is now tilted in favor of the Christians. During the recess, President Amin Gemayel is sounding out the U.S. and Arab leaders on how to amend the accord and still satisfy both Israel and Syria. This week he is scheduled to meet with Assad in Damascus. Jerusalem insists it will not pull out its soldiers unless the accord is observed, while Damascus has said that its 62,000 troops will stay until the pact is scrapped.