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While Gemayel engaged in his delicate tinkering, a 14-member commission in Geneva reached some "tentative conclusions" on constitutional changes. Among the proposals: a parliament with upper and lower houses would replace the single-chamber legislature and be equally divided between Muslims and Christians, instead of the current ratio in favor of the Christians. The posts of President and Prime Minister would continue to go to a Maronite Christian and a Sunni Muslim, respectively, but a vice presidency would be created and be reserved for a Muslim. Although heartened by the results, committee members stressed that these were suggestions that must be approved by Lebanese leaders when they reconvene, probably in early December.
Syria was the undisputed winner of the latest round of Middle East maneuvering. By strangling Arafat, Assad hopes to become the chief spokesman for the Palestinian cause. That, coupled with his objective of gaining de facto control over Lebanese affairs, would fulfill Assad's dream: to become the predominant leader in the Arab world.
In response to the dramatic improvement in Syria's position, the Reagan Administration has decided to draw closer to Israel. There is irony in that decision: in 1981 Alexander Haig, who was then Secretary of State, tried to build an anti-Soviet "strategic consensus" that would include Israel as well as such moderate Arab nations as Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia. When Israel invaded Lebanon in June 1982, relations between Washington and Jerusalem nosedived. Things did not improve when then Prime Minister Menachem Begin summarily rejected Reagan's plan to link the Israeli-occupied West Bank and Gaza Strip to Jordan.
In the past months, however, Secretary of State George Shultz has become profoundly concerned about the growing influence of the Soviet-backed Syrians at a time when Israel seemed to be weakened by internal problems and divisions. His concern also had a personal dimension: he felt insulted by the manner in which Assad had harangued him during a meeting last July and betrayed by Syria's refusal to withdraw its troops from Lebanon after he had got Israel to agree to do so. The replacement of Ariel Sharon by Moshe Arens as Defense Minister and of Begin by Shamir has also helped improve relations. In a gesture toward Washington, Arens reversed his predecessor's policy by offering to share intelligence on how U.S. and Soviet weapons performed during the Lebanese invasion.
Shultz, however, faced opposition from Defense Secretary Caspar Weinberger, who has frequently argued that closer U.S.-Israeli ties would imperil American attempts to strengthen relations with the Arab world. Nevertheless, at a meeting last month, Reagan sided with Shultz and signed National Security Decision Directive 111.
Under the terms of the document, the U.S. will offer to help finance development of the Lavi, a new Israeli fighter jet. Other facets of the arrangement may include placing U.S. military equipment in Israel, holding top-level military exchanges, conducting joint exercises and sharing worldwide intelligence data. The U.S. may be even more generous with its financial aid, partly by turning a larger percentage of its huge annual subsidy (an estimated $2.6 billion for fiscal 1984) into outright grants.