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Franco-Soviet Relations. Mitterrand is likely to take a harder line toward the Soviet Union than Giscard—despite his relationship with Moscow's most loyal European Communist Party. The President-elect strongly denounced the Afghanistan invasion and, as one senior British diplomat observed, "has no illusions about Soviet motivations and intentions." Pravda, which praised Giscard's commitment to detente and was openly rooting for him in the election, lamented last week that the Socialist leader would probably adopt the " 'tough positions' of the Western side."
Middle East. As a much stronger supporter of Israel and the Camp David process than Giscard, Mitterrand will almost certainly back off from the overtly mercantile pro-Arab policy of his predecessor. In a rare moment of agreement, both Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin and opposition Labor Party Leader Shimon Peres hailed Mitterrand last week as "a true friend of Israel."
Third World. Mitterrand is anxious to increase aid and trade with developing countries, and seems likely to strengthen French support for national liberation movements. He is strongly opposed to dealing with any kind of junta or authoritarian regime, no matter how pro-Western, and has sharply criticized U.S. involvement in El Salvador.
NATO. While Mitterrand talked as an Atlanticist during the campaign, he is unlikely to return France to NATO's integrated military command. He is committed to maintaining the independent French nuclear deterrent and will probably not reduce defense spending drastically.
Europe. Mitterrand's election has injected a note of uncertainty into the European Community, whose officials now expect action on such prickly questions as agricultural subsidies, fisheries and steel to be delayed as the French concentrate on their domestic situation. Perhaps the election's most significant effect on the EC will be a weakening of the predominant Paris-Bonn axis, which depended on the close personal relationship of Giscard and West German Chancellor Helmut Schmidt. The Chancellor was said to be shattered by Giscard's fall. He sent a formal congratulatory telegram to fellow socialist Mitterrand, whom he barely knows, but personally telephoned condolences to his defeated conservative friend.
Meanwhile British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher, who never concealed her dislike for the Olympian Giscard, was hopeful that London could now strengthen its hand in European affairs with the weakening of the Paris-Bonn relationship.
Franco-U.S. Relations. The Reagan Administration, which had been building a closer relationship with Giscard over the past few months, was caught flat-footed by Mitterrand's election. Indeed, the Paris embassy had confidently predicted a Giscard victory (but not the CIA, whose analysts correctly picked Mitterrand). Briefing reporters the day after the election, an Administration official gamely stressed the "enduring quality" of Franco-American relations, but admitted to concern over the possible inclusion of Communists in the Mitterrand government.