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No one could tell exactly where the country was headed, but one thing was clear: in turning away from a center-right presidency for the first time in 23 years, the French people had embarked on a bold adventure that would sorely test the political institutions of the Fifth Republic and—if Mitterrand has his way—transform the social and economic landscape.
How had this dramatic shift come about in a nation long purported to have its heart on the left but its pocketbook, and its votes, on the right? Why such a crushing rejection of an incumbent President who only six months ago was given 60% in the opinion polls, and whose performance had seemed so creditable in many respects? Under Giscard, after all, France had become Europe's foremost aerospace manufacturer, the largest European producer of nuclear energy, a world leader in industrial and agricultural exports and, on the whole, a more prosperous nation than when he took office seven years ago. True, his popularity had plummeted as the unemployment level rose to 1.66 million, or 7.2% of the work force, and inflation nearly hit 14%, but even those figures seem moderate compared with those of many other Western countries.
To some extent, Giscard was hurt by a weakness that plagued him since he took office in 1974: the lack of a powerful party base. His own Union for French Democracy (U.D.F.) is a small and loose-knit group that is not nearly as well organized as its troublesome Gaullist coalition partner, the Rally for the Republic (R.P.R.). Chirac, who polled a respectable 18% in the first round of the presidential voting, gave Giscard only a lukewarm endorsement in the second round. Post-election analysis indicates that only 75% of Chirac's supporters cast their votes for Giscard. The R.P.R. defections made a critical difference.
Another factor was the steady rise of Socialist strength since Mitterrand took over the party leadership in 1971, and the corresponding decline of the Communists. While Mitterrand won 25.8% of the first-round presidential votes, Communist Leader Georges Marchais took only a humiliating 15.3%, a quarter less than the longtime Communist share of the electorate. As a result of that diminished standing, it seemed safe to vote for the left, for the first time since the Fifth Republic was founded in 1958, without handing the Communists a predominant role in government. At the same time, Marchais instructed his own disciplined followers to vote for Mitterrand in the second round. An estimated 90% of them did so.