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Certain other non-Italians may stand a better chance. France's Jean Cardinal Villot, 72, as camerlengo during the papal interregnum, has become suddenly more visible than he ever was as Secretary of State. Though austere in style, Villot is an approachable, sensible moderate, whom Paul might have listened to more carefully: he warned that a divorce referendum in Italy would result in a resounding defeat for the church, which is precisely what happened. It is, however, unlikely that any Cardinal from a major Western nation, such as France, West Germany or, above all, the U.S., would be chosen, lest the Vatican be identified too closely with big-power politics. No Americans are considered papabili anyway.
Smaller powers are more likely to provide viable dark-horse candidates. Despite his age, 73, and his Shermanesque talk of refusing election, Austria's Franz Cardinal König remains a possibility. Spain's Vicente Cardinal Enrique y Tarancon, 71, Archbishop of Madrid, has won a reputation as a courageous, liberalizing leader who declined to officiate at Franco's funeral but pointedly helped to crown King Juan Carlos. In a stalemate, the "Iberian bloc"—Portuguese, Spanish and Latin American votes—could swing behind him. A favorite of many in Latin America and elsewhere is Brazil's Aloisio Cardinal Lorscheider, 53, Archbishop of Fortaleza, president of Brazil's Bishops Conference and outspoken critic of the military regime. Lorscheider's advocates have worried more about his health than his youth, but he is now fully recovered from open-heart surgery last year.
One old Roman saying need not bother the candidates: Chi entra Papa esce Cardinale (He who enters [the conclave] Pope leaves it a Cardinal). Even front runners, such as Pignedoli and Baggio, are not so far ahead that they can go into the conclave as "Popes." Any of a number of good men, however, could come out one.