The Romans have a word for it: papabili — the "possible Popes." In other times and other conclaves, they were at most a handful of men who, because of their holiness or wisdom or political savvy — or some fortuitous combination of such qualities — were deemed worthy of election as Pope. The conclave to choose a successor to Pope Paul VI, however, will be like no other before it. The number of Cardinal-electors, for one thing, is far greater than in any previous conclave, nearly twice the number who voted in 1963 in Pope Paul's election. With that increase has come an explosion of candidates. Observes Paulist Father Thomas Stransky, a former member of the Vatican's Secretariat for Promoting Christian Unity and longtime Curial insider: "There is such a wide spread that it is impossible to say whose name will finally come up."
As many as 20 names are already being bruited, including those of some non-Italians. Most of the candidates defy easy labeling, for as Britain's Peter Hebblethwaite, veteran Catholic editor and Vatican expert, wrote in The Spectator just before Paul's death: "Any candidate who comes along with a conservative or progressive label must expect to be defeated. The next Pope cannot be the Pope of a faction within the church. He will have to rule from the center and be the servant of unity."
Redemptorist Theologian F.X. Murphy, a shrewd observer of papal politics since the Second Vatican Council, singles out two qualities that the new Pope must have: "pazienza e presenza, " the patience to deal with a pluralistic, decentralized church and the commanding presence to lead and guide. Similarly, U.S. Sociologist Father Andrew Greeley, in a detailed "job description" for the next Pontiff, concludes that he should be a "hopeful, holy man, who can smile, delegate responsibility and trust other human beings." If he is, Greeley observes, "it does not matter whether he is progressive or moderate."
Another old distinction is fading, too — the line between a "pastoral" Pope, like John XXIII, and the statesman-diplomat, like Pius XII. Though bred to the Curia, Paul VI so cherished his nine years as Archbishop of Milan that he determined that future Cardinals, even career Curia men, should have at least one good stretch of pastoral work. Most of the leading contenders are men with both pastoral and Curial experience.
Of the many names on the lips of the conclavists, five stand out, with several others in close contention and a large field of dark horses. The five: