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The contest in Rome this month is by no means confined to these three Italians and two non-Italians: they are simply the early-form leaders in a very open race. There is, for example, a second rank of Italian papabili, led by the able Archbishop of Florence, Giovanni Cardinal Benelli, 57. As Substitute Secretary of State under French Cardinal Jean Villot for a decade, Benelli wielded more power than his boss, acting effectively as the Pope's chief of staff. Paul rewarded him last year with a red hat and the Archdiocese of Florence, but he is still quite young. What is more, his often bruising man ner as the Pope's aide may have left too much blood on too many cassocks for him to win election this time.
Salvatore Cardinal Pappalardo, 59, Archbishop of Palermo, might be a more conciliatory choice. A longtime teacher of Vatican diplomacy who was pro-nuncio to Indonesia during the anti-Communist bloodbath of 1965, Pappalardo capably moved into his faction-ridden Sicilian diocese as a unifying leader. A fellow southern Italian with an outside chance is Corrado Cardinal Ursi, 70, Archbishop of Naples. A widely admired pastor of the poor, Ursi travels from parish to parish to be sure all his people are cared for. His serious drawback is his parochialism: he speaks only Italian and has never served outside the country. Ugo Cardinal Poletti, 64, vicar-general for the Pope as Bishop of Rome, has been mentioned as a candidate because of his own concern with the capital's poor, but his efforts have been less intense and less successful than Ursi's. One powerful Italian, Pericle Felici, 67, who heads the Vatican commissions on implementing Vatican II and on revising canon law, will figure prominently in the conclave, but is rated too abrasive a conservative to be elected.
Perhaps the most attractive Italian of all has almost no hope of election: Archbishop Anastasio Ballestrero of Turin. Installed a year ago, Ballestrero, 64, is a Carmelite friar noted for his spirituality. He was slated for a red hat. The Cardinals in conclave could choose him (in theory, any Catholic male can be named Pope), just as they are said to have considered Archbishop Montini in the 1958 election. But no non-Cardinal has been elected since the 14th century.
Other appealing candidates stand only the barest chance in the voting. One is Bernardin Cardinal Gantin, 56, a black priest from Benin (formerly Dahomey), who was consecrated bishop 21 years ago by Pius XII. A tall, gentle man, quick to smile, he is now prefect of the Commission on Justice and Peace. Another is Britain's George Basil Cardinal Hume, 55, a Benedictine monk who in 1976 was plucked from obscurity as Abbot of Ampleforth Abbey to become Archbishop of Westminster. Hume's relative youth and inexperience are likely to count negatively with the pragmatic Cardinals.