DEFENSE: Arming to Disarm in the Age of Detente

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II-class pack more punch than anything comparable in size in the U.S. fleet. Norman Polmar, U.S. editor of Jane's Fighting Ships, estimates that the Soviets lead the world in antiship missiles, introduction of new technologies to warships and numbers of attack submarines. Last year the Russians launched their first aircraft carrier. At 45,000 tons, it is about half as large as the big U.S. carriers like the nuclear-propelled Nimitz. It will be able to bring helicopters and vertical-takeoff and -landing aircraft to the scene of a battle but lacks the catapult needed to launch fixed-wing fighters or bombers.

Steady Improvements. Meanwhile, the U.S. has trimmed its active fleet to 174 major surface combat ships. Nonetheless, Polmar believes that the U.S. Navy still leads the Soviets in a number oif critical areas. Among them: carrier aviation (1,120 fighters and bombers aboard 14 attack carriers), nuclear-propelled surface ships and the ability to refuel and resupply ships at sea. This last capability permits the U.S. to keep a ship at sea for a longer period of time than the Russians, though Polmar expects the Soviets to catch up within a year or two.

In tactical aircraft, the U.S. still outclasses the Russians in performance, though not in numbers; however, the Soviets have made steady improvements. According to Admiral Moorer, they produced about eight new fighters in the 1960s, a decade in which the U.S. turned out only one—the problem-ridden F-111. Now the U.S. is developing two new fighters, the F-15 for the Air Force and the F-14 Tomcat for the Navy. The Tomcat is equipped to carry the Phoenix missile, which is capable of knocking out the Soviets' newest interceptor, the MIG-25, but costs $23.3 million —more than twice the original estimated price. The Soviet Union has the edge in antiaircraft missiles. Its air defenses boast some 10,000 launchers, including the deadly SA-6, which knocked down U.S.-built jets with devastating accuracy during the Middle East war.

On the ground, the balance of forces can be seen most graphically in Europe, which Pentagon planners still regard as the most likely place for a conventional war between the U.S. and Russia. When Nixon took office in 1969, U.S. forces were geared to what defense planners termed the "2½-war concept." It meant that in theory the U.S. was prepared to fight three wars at the same time — one in Europe, another in Asia and a "brush-fire" war somewhere else. Since the U.S. withdrew its forces from Viet Nam, how ever, the strategic premise has been changed to 1½ wars, with the main event envisaged in Europe.

From the Baltic to the Bohemian Forest, some 750,000 NATO troops (190,000 of them supplied by the U.S. forces in West Germany) face approximately 850,000 troops from the Warsaw Pact nations, though not all are of top quality. The Communists hold an even greater superiority in tactical aircraft (4,300 v. 1,890) and in tanks (about 19,000 v. 6,500). Despite the antitank missiles the Arabs and Israelis used so effectively against each other last year, military planners still consider the tank the key weapon in ground combat. The Soviets have both a new medium tank (the T-62) and a new light tank in production and are testing still another new medium tank. Nonetheless, as Schlesinger points out, the U.S. and its 13 NATO allies have "other