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Rockefeller's record as Governor indicates what he would argue for as a presidential candidate. In his past nine years in the statehouse, Rockefeller has more than doubled state spending to the present rate of $5 billion by raising taxes three times; he is currently seeking another tax increase and a $5.5 billion budget. Rockefeller has used the money for a cornucopia of state programs—education, health, pollution control, transportation, housing—that have made New York one of the most progressive states in the country. Last week he unveiled plans for a new transportation-improvement scheme for the New York City area that will cost some $3 billion over the next decade and an urban-redevelopment plan with a price tag of $6 billion in public and private funds. If Rockefeller becomes the Republican candidate, the Democrats will hardly be able to accuse him of indifference to domestic needs. Nor, for that matter, could he charge the Democrats with spending too much.
Primary Mill. The White House regards Rockefeller as the strongest man the Republicans can field, and some Republicans who personally prefer Nixon would accept Rockefeller if they thought that only he could win. Nixon, however, has held a strong lead in polls of both Republican leaders and ordinary voters. The current Gallup poll of registered Republicans gives Nixon a formidable edge of 67% to 30% for Rockefeller with 3% undecided. Nixon's lead in this test has swelled 21 points since January, partly perhaps because of Rockefeller's clash with New York Mayor John Lindsay over last month's garbage strike (TIME, Feb. 23). The poll shows Nixon ahead of Rockefeller among all voters, 48% to 44%, with Rockefeller leading among independents, 47% to 45%. Surveys of this nature have been swinging widely in recent months, as has the President's popularity rating. Yet by next summer they could become an important factor. If Johnson's estate falls so low that he appears vulnerable to almost any challenger, Nixon is bound to benefit. A tighter situation would boost Rockefeller—provided that he has meanwhile advanced his own cause.
As he becomes more active nationally and attracts more publicity, Rockefeller's standing in the polls may well improve. This would help him, of course, but unless the rise is large and sustained, the value to him is likely to be short-lived. What Rockefeller needs is solid missionary work among the convention delegates, whose selection has already begun, and a demonstration of enough fight to prove his ability to slug it out with L.B.J. "Drafts," said Everett Dirksen last week, "are few and far between." Major party candidates who avoid primaries have been rarer still in recent years.