(6 of 6)
The Taliban leadership sounds rattled. Toward the end of last week, it threatened war against any country that helped the U.S. mount an attack. Bush, for his part, needs to be realistic about the cohesion of any new coalition. Negotiations with the Russians start next week, though Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov has already ruled out the use of central Asian territory by "NATO military operations." Told that Pakistan has signed on to the coalition, Bush commented, "I appreciate that statement, and now we'll just find out what that means, won't we?" Islamabad will certainly try to exact a price for its cooperation, especially some relief from the economic sanctions imposed after it tested nuclear devices in 1998. Arab states asked to join the coalition will doubtless request some guarantee that the U.S. will kick-start the stalled peace process in the Middle East. In the short term, that is not in the cards; it would look too much like a reward to Israel's enemies. But in the end, finding a lasting peace in the Middle East may be a prerequisite to winning the new war.
Experts in terrorism the world over, though, stress the limits of a purely military approach. The application of massive firepower has not ended terrorism in Chechnya or in the West Bank, notes Paul Wilkinson, director of the Center for the Study of Terrorism at St. Andrews. Adds Wilkinson: "Even a superpower can't do it on its own." Analysts stress a long-term policy of "draining the swamp," ameliorating the sources of terrorism while removing their support. In the case of Islamic radicalism, such an approach could involve economic assistance to a post-Taliban Afghanistan, a place so wrecked at present that any new military action would just make the rubble bounce some more. It would require a concerted effort to reach out to those many moderate Islamic clerics who detest terrorism, coupled with a determination to shut down financial support for terrorist networks. Already Washington has told the Saudi government that the U.S. will no longer tolerate the practice of turning a blind eye to wealthy Saudis who fund extremist groups. "We're not going to pussyfoot around with them," says a senior State Department official.
In the next few weeks and months, the rustle of papers that suggest such quiet initiatives will be drowned by the drumbeats of war. How loud and how long those drums tap out their rhythm of yet more death and destruction remains--like so much about our new war--hidden in the fog.
--With reporting by Hannah Bloch/Kabul; Massimo Calabresi, Mark Thompson and Douglas Waller/Washington; Michael Fathers and Meenakshi Ganguly/New Delhi; James Graff/Brussels; Ghulam Hasnain/Islamabad; Scott MacLeod and Amany Radwan/Cairo; J.F.O. McAllister and Romesh Ratnesar/London; Azadeh Moaveni/Tehran; Paul Quinn-Judge/Moscow and Matt Rees/Jerusalem