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Welcome though such support might be, foreign ministers won't be flying the planes or crouching in the foxholes when the first stage of a military campaign against terrorism takes place. And since the states that can be said to harbor terrorism include Syria, Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan and Sudan, the broadest conceptions of such a campaign would amount to a third World War. In the short term, any military operations will be more limited in scope. As suspicion hardened in Washington that al-Qaeda ("the base"), the network of terrorists associated with bin Laden, was behind the attacks, plans began to take shape for action against its camps in Afghanistan. At the Pentagon, and at MacDill Air Force Base in Tampa, Fla., home of U.S. Central Command, officers dusted off the options for attacking bin Laden that were first prepared after al-Qaeda operatives bombed American embassies in Kenya and Tanzania three years ago.
On that occasion, the Clinton Administration launched cruise-missile strikes on the Afghan camps as well as on an alleged nerve-gas plant in Sudan. The attacks were widely dismissed as doing nothing more than burning a few tents, though a senior Clinton Administration counterterrorism official claims that bin Laden "almost got killed." Whatever happens this time will be a lot bigger--though it will likely fall short of a full-scale invasion. The last army to march successfully through Afghanistan was led by Alexander the Great. In 1842, when a British expeditionary force of 17,000 was forced to retreat from Kabul to Jalalabad, just one man--an army doctor--survived. The Soviet Union's mighty Red Army invaded Afghanistan with tanks and helicopter gunships in 1979; 10 years later, cold and defeated, its troops left the place hoping never to see it again.
But if an invasion is ruled out, substantial military force is not. As soon as the U.S. gathers credible intelligence on bin Laden's whereabouts, expect a combination of air power and special forces on the ground. "I think we'll end up paralyzing a big chunk of Afghanistan with air strikes, and then move rapidly to do a decisive takedown," a U.S. Army general tells TIME. If that is the game, a nighttime blizzard of cruise missiles and bombs would be followed by U.S. commandos--probably including elements of the 82nd Airborne, backed by elite Army Rangers and Delta Force members--all trying to capture or kill bin Laden. "[Bush] won't be taken seriously if he tries to do it all from the air," says an Army officer of his Commander in Chief. "We can do a lot of things with our jets and missiles, but we can't find a specific person. You need boots on the ground to do that."