(3 of 4)
Considering the key industrial states as a whole (Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania), Carter leads by a larger margin (43% to 36%) than he did in September (39% to 36%). One partial explanation may be that Catholics have shifted toward the President (43% favor him now, compared with 38% last month). On the other hand, however, Reagan is now even with Carter among blue-collar workers, whereas Carter led by 10 points in September. The race in the heavily populated industrial regions remains extremely close. The shift of very few percentage points would swing not only those states but the election as well.
Part of Carter's gain is coming from voters who are deserting Independent Anderson. The TIME survey indicates that those who still support Anderson will vote nearly 3 to 2 for Carter if they abandon the Congressman from Illinois. Failing to seize the middle ground on issues and ideology, Anderson is identified by the electorate as being the most liberal of the three candidates. It is also clear that Anderson has been unable to make much of an impression on voters; more than half say they simply do not know his stands on specific issues.
But Reagan still leads substantially in state-by-state electoral vote estimates, because in many ways he appeals more strongly to voters than Carter. More voters say they are excited about Reagan than Carter, for example, and this difference in hard-core support could be important in an election that could swing by a tiny margin.
Voters have also changed their minds about who is more likely to triumph. Despite the fact that those surveyed rank Carter even with Reagan, they now anticipate that Reagan has a better chance of winning than Carter (48% for Reagan vs. 44% for Carter), a reversal of the expectation in September when half thought Carter would win and 42% guessed Reagan.
Reagan has also slightly widened his margin among independent voters, leading Carter 41% to 33%. Among young voters, Reagan is now favored, 42% to 36%. One of the most remarkable findings of the poll is that Anderson, for all his appeal on college campuses, is backed by only 14% of the young. Among voters over age 65, Carter and Reagan are tied.
In the South, Reagan is ahead, 46% to 43%, and thus threatens to crack Carter's 1976 electoral stronghold in his home region. The Governor, who has long been popular in some sections of the South, is being helped by the votes of white Protestants (51% to 39%), who favor him mainly because of his well-known conservative views and partly because of his alliance with television-era fundamentalist preachers.
The major campaign and advertising effort to convince voters that Reagan compiled a good record as Governor of California has apparently succeeded: 56% of his supporters say that is an important reason for backing him. Reagan is also profiting heavily from a feeling that it is simply "time for a change," a point cited by 85% of his supporters.