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Most important, perhaps, is that Carter has emerged virtually unscathed from Reagan's relentless assault on his economic record, which was the Governor's prime point of attack. People still feel that inflation is the chief national problem; Reagan has been unable to convince voters that he could cope with it much better than Carter. Concern about unemployment, a threat for any incumbent, especially one who is a Democrat, has declined and more voters (35% compared with 32% in September) now feel the nation's economy will improve during the next few months.
Weighing all factors, voter confidence in Carter's ability to handle the economy has increased enough during the past two months to allow him to overcome Governor Reagan's lead on that issue. In early September Reagan won the confidence of 66% of the electorate for his ability to run the economy; 57% said they had similar faith in Carter. Now 69% of those surveyed express confidence in Carter and only 56% in Reagan.
At the same time, Carter has eliminated Reagan's lead on the issue of foreign affairs. Sixty-two percent say they have confidence in Carter on this point; 61% feel that way about Reagan. Carter is not being helped by the war between Iraq and Iran and the threat to stability in the gulf region; 60% of the voters say the conflict is no reason not to dump the incumbent. What does seem to be boosting Carter, however, is the fact that 46% of those surveyed believe Reagan might be "trigger happy," and 57% favor Carter as the candidate they "trust more not to overreact in times of crisis." Only 32% would feel safer with Reagan.
Thus the Carter camp's assault on Reagan as being a warmonger has achieved its purpose, although the advantage was gained at some cost to the President. Most voters (52%) say they think Carter has spent his time "smearing the other candidates" rather than "conducting a straightforward campaign" (45%).
Reagan, on the other hand, is given more credit for positive campaigning (54%).
Despite the tightness of the race between Carter and Reagan, the poll suggests that the President has more to gain in the closing days of the campaign than the Governor. The 13% of the sample who say they are unsure how they will vote acknowledge, when pressed, that they are leaning more toward Carter than Reagan (34% to 21%). Five percent of the total remain truly undecided. Carter's early advantage among women voters has widened slightly (49% to 33%) just as Reagan's advantage among men has grown (49% to 36%). Women fear mainly that Reagan would be too belligerent as President. Males and females feel much the same about two other issues that generally hurt Reagan. On the question of the pending Equal Rights Amendment, 61% of men and 59% of women are in favor of the measure; 56% of men and 55% of women are against an amendment banning abortions. Interestingly, nearly a third of Reagan's supporters believe, mistakenly, that their candidate is pro-ERA.