A TIME poll shows the slightest shift could swing the election
They have barnstormed the country like jet-age traveling salesmen. They have jammed the airwaves with millions of dollars' worth of advertising. They have attacked each other's records ceaselessly. Their families and friends and surrogates have added their voices to the din of denunciation and promotion. Yet on the very threshold of the presidential election of 1980, Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan remain just where they were at the beginning of their long campaign—locked in a virtual tie among registered voters in the U.S.
According to a survey for TIME completed last week by the opinion research firm of Yankelovich, Skelly and White, Inc., Carter has an insignificant 1-point lead over Reagan, 42% to 41%, compared with a 39% to 39% tie at the beginning of the fall campaign. The independent candidacy of Congressman John Anderson, however, has continued to sink, just as so many political experts in both parties predicted it would from the start. His share of the vote dropped from 15% in early September to 12% now.*
The mood of the electorate remains as it was at the beginning of the presidential campaign. Americans are disappointed by the choice of candidates they are offered, concerned about the many serious problems facing the country, and skeptical that any President can make much difference. They long for a change, yet are fearful of taking a chance on an inexperienced President.
Much of the avowed support for the candidates is still based on opposition to their opponents rather than on genuine enthusiasm for one man or another. Forty-three percent of Reagan's voters indicate they are more interested in voting against Carter than for Reagan. The President does not fare much better. Thirty-seven percent of Carter's supporters say they are really just anti-Reagan.
Even after having chosen Carter or Reagan, more than half of the voters say they have reservations about the abilities of their candidate. And the level of deeply committed support is extremely low; few cowbells are being rung at rallies throughout the land this fall. Sixty-one percent of the voters admit being unmoved by anyone in the race. Although this remains a somewhat grim and unhappy election, the fact that the decision will at long last be reached next week has heightened national attention and made even more important the presidential debate this week. Slowly, quietly, the patterns are changing. The poll indicates that President Carter is reclaiming traditional Democratic support. He is now backed by 66% of the Democrats, compared with the 59% who were for him in September. Most of this new strength comes from party members who had once defected to Anderson but who have come home to their party's nominee. Anderson now claims 9% of Democrats; in September he had 15%. Carter is also slowly getting the better of Reagan on some key political issues.