INAUGURATION 1997: NO GUTS, NO GLORY

ON THE EVE OF HIS INAUGURATION, CLINTON IS THINKING IN LOWERCASE TERMS. BUT THE BIG ISSUES--LIKE SOCIAL SECURITY AND MEDICARE--NEED BIGGER ACTION BY FAR

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These are essential issues. But as even some White House aides admit, Clinton's traveling show is most effective when he's getting things done back in Washington--and most of that work is done in Congress. "He obviously has to go through Congress to get things done," says Leon Panetta, the outgoing chief of staff. "But he can't be seen as tied to its failings. He has to use the bully pulpit effectively and confront Congress effectively." As other aides point out, legislative action is required for 80% of the items on Clinton's to-do list: offering health-care coverage to every American child, financing the first two years of college through Hope Scholarships, and extending the Brady Bill to wife beaters and the Family and Medical Leave Law to people who take time off for parent-teacher meetings. Clinton has a good shot at getting these items, since the G.O.P. wants desperately to close the gender gap. But other parts of his agenda--rolling back $15 billion in welfare cuts and passing campaign-finance reform--are less likely.

In the case of campaign-finance reform, Clinton may not care; Gore's need to raise money for 2000 clashes with Clinton's desire to rehabilitate himself on the issue. Since Clinton knows that Senator Mitch McConnell and other Republicans will throw themselves in the way of any reform bill, Clinton can push for it without having to concern himself that it will actually happen. To prove he's serious about the matter, Clinton would have to go beyond a legislative proposal and orchestrate an immense grass-roots campaign, a full-throated national roar so long and loud that reform becomes inevitable. But a President known for renting out the Lincoln Bedroom may lack the stature to make that happen.

Clinton's best hope for pushing through legislation is to build a center-right coalition of Democrats and Republicans, though the move risks splitting open his party and giving Gephardt valuable ammunition for a primary run against Gore. House Republican Conference chairman John Boehner foresees multiple coalitions, with swing votes coming from different members on each issue: the balanced budget, a tax cut and stopgap Medicare reform. "The agenda they're talking about is the agenda we're talking about," he says. "It's likely it will become law." Clinton and Trent Lott, the Senate majority leader, have been talking regularly. Lott was in minority leader Tom Daschle's office last week when Lott's pager went off, telling him that Clinton was calling. The Mississippian hustled back to his office to take the call in private. When he explained the delay to Clinton, the President laughed. "Well," Clinton said, "tell Tom I called to tell you I'm switching parties." That would be one way to lock in a legacy.

--Reported by James Carney, John F. Dickerson and J.F.O. McAllister/Washington

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