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Commissions only get you so far. A reminder of that came last week, when the Advisory Council on Social Security, after 21/2 years of study and deliberation, issued its final report on repairing the system. Clinton formed the panel to get some political cover for the tough choices that must be made to keep Social Security alive in the next century. But the council gave Clinton no cover. Its members deadlocked over three proposals for extending the life of the system: all three call for investing Social Security money in the stock market (instead of the lower-yielding but more secure Treasury bills used now), but they differ sharply on how much to invest and who should control investment decisions. Even so, the report gave Clinton a chance to lead: Does he favor a market solution, or does he want to throw his weight behind means testing as a way to avoid so much as limited privatization of this venerable federal program?
The President wouldn't say. He sent McCurry out with a clarification: Clinton "believes that there are a number of ideas that have surfaced as part of this debate," McCurry explained, "and certainly in the report of the advisory council itself, that merit further discussion. He is not wedded to any of the suggestions made by any of the separate groups of members of the council itself but agrees that many of these ideas will have to be discussed further." Teddy Roosevelt had a term for sentences like that. He called them "weasel words."
The White House argues that it's too early to commit to any specific plan--or even to a general direction. "We want people to read in their history books in 2052 that Clinton preserved the Social Security system," says McCurry. "But the sky isn't falling. The program runs a surplus well into the next century." That's only half the story. If a solution isn't imposed before this century runs out, the numbers get so out of whack that they can't easily be put right again: waiting just five years to impose a 2.6% payroll-tax increase, the Concord Coalition says, would add $1 trillion to the program's costs over the next 70 years. And for political reasons, this year may be Clinton's only chance. "With a second-term President, the fifth year is the only time he has an opportunity to get anything done," says Brookings Institution scholar Stephen Hess. After that, lame-duck status sets in. Congress will spend 1998 fighting out the mid-term elections, and in 1999 the presidential race begins in earnest.