(2 of 3)
Balladur's platform is more nebulous. His electoral announcement contained generalities about ``indispensable reforms'' in employment and education and on the anticorruption front, while promising a ``prosperous, fair and influential'' future for France. Yet precise content does not seem to matter much. ``What counts is what you inspire in the minds of the people,'' says Florence Muracciolle, a respected political reporter for the weekly Journal du Dimanche, ``whether or not you convince them that things will go better under your leadership.'' Therein lies Balladur's great advantage: with his gray hair, portly figure and ponderous diction, he looks and acts more like a President than the leaner, more aggressive Chirac. ``Since becoming Prime Minister, Balladur has cut a presidential image,'' says conservative political consultant Bernard Rideau. ``He has the language, the look. He fits the mold. Chirac does not.''
If that is the case, Balladur can breathe a sigh of relief, since his record in office, as one of his aides admits, has been ``respectable but not dazzling.'' Balladur can point to some achievements: his tough stance in the GATT negotiations, his defense of the franc, last month's dramatic rescue of a hijacked Air France plane in Marseilles. But he has also backed down in several major labor and social confrontations, and has made no progress in solving France's leading problem, unemployment, which has risen from 10.9% to 12.6% since he took over. ``The government hasn't yet mastered unemployment,'' says Balladur spokesman Bernard Brigouleix. ``But this has not translated into a collapse at the polls. And with a bit of luck, Balladur will be heading into the election just as the recovery starts to produce results.''
So is the race over before it begins? Not necessarily. For one thing, about half the voters still appear undecided; for another, analysts point out, since De Gaulle's time the candidate leading in the polls four months before a presidential contest has always lost. Among potential obstacles in Balladur's path:
SCANDALS. Three of his ministers have resigned in the face of corruption indictments, and one is in jail. Balladur himself has not been tainted, but two more Cabinet members are threatened with investigations, and any fresh resignations might undermine his credibility.
THE BROKEN PACT. Chirac may darken Balladur's image by harping on his forsaken promise not to run. ``Chirac put Balladur in power, and Balladur betrayed him,'' says an aide to Foreign Minister Alain Juppe, one of the few Cabinet members who supports the mayor. ``Chirac is the father figure, and Balladur is a parricide.''
THE UNEXPECTED. ``A Prime Minister is very exposed,'' says Jean-Marie Colombani, director of Le Monde. ``He could be destroyed in two weeks--by a demonstration that gets out of hand, for example, or a hostage drama.''