Edouard Balladur had left nothing to chance. Everything, from the flowers on his desk to the conspicuously placed photos of his grandchildren, was calculated to project the image of a national father figure. Though there was little suspense--his intentions had long been clear--Balladur's nationally televised address was the biggest political event of the new year. It marked the Gaullist Prime Minister's official entry into a presidential race that could make him the successor to Socialist Francois Mitterrand next May. Speaking from his gilded office, Balladur, 65, promised to run a ``positive, serene and optimistic'' campaign.
Serene? Not if Jacques Chirac can help it. The Paris mayor and former Prime Minister is seething over what he calls Balladur's ``betrayal.'' Two years ago, with the conservatives poised to win a majority in legislative elections, Chirac and Balladur cut a deal: Chirac, then leader of the Gaullist Rally for the Republic (R.P.R.) party, would put Balladur into the Prime Minister's job; Balladur, in turn, would defer to Chirac as the Gaullists' ``natural'' candidate in the 1995 presidential election.
Trouble is that Balladur, quite unexpectedly, became the darling of the opinion polls and the front runner for the presidency. One by one, conservative leaders, including 25 of 29 current Cabinet members, deserted Chirac for Balladur. The defections need not be fatal for Chirac: he still claims the support of 240 of the R.P.R.'s 350 Senators and Deputies and appears to have the majority of the Gaullist rank and file on his side. But with Balladur enjoying far broader support from the center, the Prime Minister's 2-to-1 lead in the polls is formidable.
What Balladur does not have to worry about is a serious challenge from the left. A month ago, the polls showed outgoing European Commission President Jacques Delors, a Socialist, well out in front. But Delors' decision not to run left the Socialists without a credible candidate. None of the announced hopefuls--former Education Minister Lionel Jospin, 57; former Culture Minister Jack Lang, 55; and party leader Henri Emmanuelli, 49--has a broad national following. As things stand, the Socialists might well be eliminated in the first stage of the two-round presidential contest on April 23.
That could leave Balladur and Chirac facing each other in the May 7 runoff. Chirac's hopes would then depend on winning substantial support among traditionally leftist voters. He is already wooing them with a social program that includes emergency job programs for the long-term unemployed and on-the-job training for young people. But credibility is a problem. Chirac has changed his views so often--he went from state dirigisme in the '70s to Reagan-style free-marketry in the '80s--that many people are skeptical.