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By returning in the wake of a U.S. invasion, Aristide would surely be perceived as an American puppet by many Haitians. At the same time, he continues to stir antipathy at the U.S. embassy in Port-au-Prince. Earlier this month officials leaked a confidential cable that had been sent to Washington charging that Aristide and his supporters "manipulate or even fabricate human-rights abuses as a propaganda tool." The deposed President's followers called for the ouster of several U.S. embassy diplomats -- hardly auspicious for the partnership. Even if Aristide's return could be orchestrated smoothly, he would encounter a far different situation than existed when he was chased from power in 1991. The democratic institutions and grass-roots organizations that helped him secure the presidency have been dismantled, their leaders forced into hiding by promilitary gunmen who operate under the name of the Front for the Advancement and Progress of Haiti (FRAPH). The front's forces are unlikely to surrender, and can be expected to threaten Aristide supporters and U.S. troops alike. "They'll make it into a guerrilla war," warns a defense official.
While Aristide would have plenty of foes to reckon with, he would have no democratic infrastructure to lean on, no community organizations to assist his restoration plans, no security apparatus to help enforce his authority. The only buttress against anarchy would be the presence of U.S. troops. That could make for a very long occupation -- far longer than the U.S. Congress or the American and Haitian people have the patience to endure.
Small wonder then that Clinton is finding little support for either unilateral or multilateral military action. Last Wednesday the OAS rejected the option of a U.S.-led intervention. France, which has stood beside Washington in championing Aristide's return, said it would not participate in such a move. The House Republican Policy Committee warned that intervention would be a "serious and costly mistake."
As Clinton struggled to decide his next move, Haiti's henchmen were doing much the same. At week's end Jonassaint was desperately seeking people to join his Cabinet. According to Daniel Phillipe, who is slated to be chief of staff to the incoming President: "We are having trouble getting people to become ministers." He says prospective candidates have been frightened away by "people claiming to be calling for the U.S. embassy" who threaten CIA retribution or the revocation of U.S. visas. "We frankly don't know if these calls are really from U.S. officials, Aristide people or FRAPH," Phillipe says. But "already five people we thought would be ministers have said now they won't serve."
Phillipe insists that Jonassaint will honor the Governors Island agreement signed by Aristide and Haiti's military leaders in New York last July -- as the U.S. has long demanded -- save one critical component: it will no longer accept Aristide's resumption of the presidency. The accord also requires the removal of military ruler Cedras. Phillipe claimed that talks have been opened with China in hopes of landing Cedras a face-saving ambassadorship. Zhao Hufei, the counselor at China's U.N. mission, confirmed that discussions were under way, saying, "Anything is possible if we have diplomatic relations with Haiti." Such relations do not exist because Aristide recognized rival Taiwan.