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Backed halfheartedly by Belgium and Denmark, Germany argued for recognition of the two republics as quickly as possible, suggesting that international acceptance of Croatia's frontiers would deflect the Serbian drive to annex more Croatian territory on the pretext of protecting Serb minorities. But opponents in Britain, France, Holland and, from the sidelines, the U.S. and the United Nations countered that recognition might only provoke the Serbs into expanding the civil war by deploying the national army into Bosnia- Herzegovina to "protect" the Serb minority there. That in turn could cause the conflict to spread to Macedonia, possibly involving Greece; to Kosovo, which has an Albanian majority; even to Hungary, which has a minority ethnic community just across the border with Yugoslavia. Most Croats are also convinced that recognition would allow them to receive better arms from the West, strengthening their resistance.
"E.C. policy is now German policy," commented Belgrade's state-run TV, repeating the official Serbian accusation that the Germany of today is a reincarnation of Hitler's Third Reich, which, in a new march to conquest, is trying to break up Yugoslavia. "The main problem with recognition," said Wolfgang Biermann, a foreign policy analyst for the Social Democrats in Bonn, "is that it is the Germans who are pushing it. Considering Germany's history in Yugoslavia, the Serbs are convinced that Germany is splitting up their state again. That escalates the conflict." In a number of capitals there was discomfort with the appearance of Germany again supporting Croatian independence, as the Nazis backed fascist Croatia during World War II.
For the moment, the war appears to be beyond the reach of diplomacy: so long as cease-fires cannot be guaranteed, no U.N. or E.C. intervention force is likely to be inserted between the warring factions. The search for a peaceful solution amounts to one of the greatest diplomatic challenges the E.C. has faced since its inception. Germany, derided as a slacker by some allies during the gulf war, has now stepped out in front. But who knows whether its initiative will help solve what may be an intractable problem?