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The generals talk less in terms of time than of conditions. The primary one is that a land offensive should be launched only when bombing has softened the Iraqi defenses to the maximum extent possible. There is agreement that, as one Congressman emerging from the Cheney-Powell briefing said, "we're still some distance from achieving the necessary kill level of tanks and artillery." But how soon might that point be reached? That, says General Norman Schwarzkopf, top allied commander in the gulf, involves a "compendium of actual results, measurable results, estimated results, anecdotal reports and gut feel."
To put all those considerations together, Bush dispatched Cheney and Powell to the gulf to talk with Schwarzkopf and other allied commanders. They were scheduled to return Sunday, and will give Bush their recommendations on whether the ground war should be launched and when.
TROLLING FOR TRUCKS
That does not necessarily mean that a hard-and-fast decision, let alone a deadline, will be fixed immediately. The initial determination could be to wait, say, two more weeks and then reassess. It may take at least that long just to judge how much damage the stepped-up allied air assault is doing to Iraqi troops, weapons and supply lines -- a question that is already dominating public discussion of the fighting.
With air raids averaging one sortie a minute, according to the allied command, the war can hardly be said to have hit a lull. But last week was the first that brought no new oil spills, Iraqi raids into Saudi Arabia or any other surprise developments, just more -- or less -- of the same. Less: the pace of Scud-missile attacks on Israel and Saudi Arabia dwindled further; Israel went five whole days without being the target of even one. More: additional Iraqi planes fled to safety in Iran (the total is now said to be 147), though for the first time, American jets shot down six before they could cross the border. And there were more allied bombing and strafing runs than ever.
The big change is a perceptible shift in the type of bombing, toward the sort that would pave the way for a ground offensive. American and allied planes are still carrying out the kind of "deep penetration" strikes on factories, communications facilities, bridges and other fixed targets that began Jan. 16; Baghdad late last week had been hit 22 nights in a row -- every night since the war began. But by last week the majority of strikes consisted of what military men call battlefield interdiction -- direct attacks on Iraqi tanks, artillery, troops and supply lines. Often the targets are not even specified in advance; pilots simply fly around looking for whatever prey they can find, a practice they call trolling. Says Lieut. Colonel William Horne, commander of the Marine 224th Squadron at a base in the gulf area: "Before, I went after a bridge. Now I'm going after a category of targets, for instance, 'movers' ((like tanks and trucks)) down the road."