On The Mistakes Of War: ROBERT MCNAMARA

ROBERT MCNAMARA, architect of the Vietnam War, talks about the Persian Gulf conflict -- and, for the first time, about the one he can't forget

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Q. Is the war in the gulf moving out of control?

A. No military operation can be totally under control, especially one with high-tech weapons. That's the lesson of the Cuban missile crisis and Vietnam. Is this situation under control? The answer is "Yes, but." Bush and Powell and Cheney are doing a superb job, but I tell you Jesus Christ himself can't keep one of these things under control.

Q. How did events get out of control in Vietnam?

A. It's not just events moving out of control. It's a slightly different expression of somewhat the same thing, which is that because of misinformation and misperceptions, there are misjudgments as to where a nation's interests lie and what can be accomplished. Take the missile crisis, for example. In what was a very simple situation, short in time -- two weeks -- simple in relations among states, much simpler than the gulf or much simpler than Vietnam -- you cannot imagine the extent of misjudgment, misinformation. Events were really out of the control of either party, though both the Russians and we were trying to maintain control.

I suspect that when we really get down to formulating this new world order and the basics for implementing collective security, we will have to lay down the proposition that while military action may be ultimately required to respond to aggression, we -- the world -- will carry out an extended period of sanctions, and we won't expect them to accomplish in five months what probably would take 12 or 18 months.

Q. You testified before Congress that military action against Iraq would be fraught with danger for the U.S. Why?

A. What I said in my testimony seems to be occurring now. Namely that I did not believe there was more than a 1-in-10 chance this war could be ended through quick surgical air strikes with minimal casualties. I thought it would have to be accompanied by substantial ground action that would lead to substantial casualties -- with the likely result that there would be serious instability in the political relationships among nations in the region. I'd say there is a fifty-fifty chance now of American troops' fighting on the ground in Iraq.

Q. You've never spoken publicly about your experience in Vietnam. Why?

A. I've never even talked to my children or my closest friends about it.

Q. Did you ever imagine anything like the large number of casualties that the U.S. experienced in Vietnam?

A. Certainly at the beginning there was no anticipation of that. That is correct.

Q. When did it become apparent? Does it relate to the gulf?

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