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THE U.S. In swatting one obnoxious troublemaker in the person of Saddam Hussein, the U.S. runs the real risk of seeing others take his place. To whatever extent it may seem irrational to Western minds, Saddam has made himself a hero to many Arabs by confronting the West and Israel -- no matter how corrupt and selfish his motives. Thus smiting the Iraqi leader could make him a martyr and fertilize the ground for his successors, who would do their best to thwart U.S. interests in the region.
"The new ideology of the Middle East is anti-Americanism," says Asad Abdul Rahman, a political scientist at Jordan University. "Regimes that are seen as nothing but stooges of the Americans could be toppled. That could be coupled with all kinds of violence, anti-American acts, the establishment of radical regimes." Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak is considered particularly exposed because he has allied himself so closely with the U.S. Says Amos Perlmutter, a political scientist at American University in Washington: "Mubarak will be in the cross hairs of every terrorist."
Much will depend on how Washington behaves in the aftermath of war. A quick withdrawal of American forces would give the lie to a loony, but widespread, Middle East conspiracy theory: that the U.S. provoked the gulf crisis -- actually encouraged Saddam to invade Kuwait -- in order to colonize the region. The degree to which Washington pressures Israel to withdraw from the occupied territories and, ultimately, give the Palestinians a homeland will also determine the level of American credibility in the region.
However skillfully the U.S. and its allies manage their expected victory, the Middle East will not soon overcome the violence and instability that have plagued the region for the better part of this century. But the coalition must make every effort to turn the momentum of battlefield success into lasting political solutions. For the worst of the end-game scenarios will be avoided only if a new peace is sought as aggressively as the war was fought.