(7 of 8)
If that is what the Kremlin means, it will have to say so. Thus far, its plan talks of "economic independence" for the republics, but also insists on "the center operating at the macro level." Does this imply a federation, with a central government? A confederation, with no central authority? An economic community? Gorbachev will have to decide whether he favors revising the present Union through legislation or dismantling the whole Soviet structure by writing a new constitution. He has taken for himself the chairmanship of the congress's Constitutional Commission and set a one-year deadline for drafting a new document. He told the Central Committee last month that the sooner decisions are made to define "the competence of the Union and that of republics," the sooner everyone will see "the enormous advantages of the new federation."
Does he have a year? Paul Goble, deputy director of research at Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, argues that if Gorbachev still intends to follow the path of perestroika and demokratizatsiya, he will have to allow the Baltics to break away by Christmas and possibly Moldavia not long thereafter. Some experts, such as Francois Heisbourg, director of the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies, believe Gorbachev will use military force as a last resort to hold things together. Western intelligence officers, however, say the army has intervened very reluctantly in ethnic conflicts in the Caucasus and Central Asia and will not do so indefinitely.
Russians do not indicate that they are determined to hold on to the empire at all costs. Indeed, the costs of the empire, rather than its glory, seem uppermost in their minds. Both Gorbachev and Shevardnadze have assured President Bush that Moscow will not use force against the Baltic states. A senior Soviet diplomat says of the Baltics, "Of course they can choose independence. But the laws have to be observed, and they must keep in mind that they will have to pay a heavy economic price." In Paris last month, Gorbachev's adviser Andrei Grachev said if Lithuanians cannot be convinced that it is in their interest to remain in a new federation, "they make the decision, and no one can prevent them from fulfilling it." Says the Carnegie Endowment's Dimitri Simes: "During the Civil War, there were strong imperial patriots who made keeping the country together their highest priority. Now I do not see any strong constituency for maintaining the empire with blood and violence."
Thus it is possible that the Baltic leaders racing so anxiously to independence are hurrying unnecessarily. Gorbachev could have entirely different crackdowns in mind as he gathers in his new powers to declare emergencies and maintains them "to defend the interests and security of the U.S.S.R." It is the decay of the center rather than the demands of the periphery that is most threatening to his reforms. His biggest immediate problem is likely to be the millions of Soviet citizens who are sick of communism, angry at the government, in despair at their living conditions -- and have no plans to leave the country.
But there is also no doubt that at some point soon -- a few months from now, perhaps a year, who can say for sure? -- the world's largest country will begin to contract. As future historians contemplate the Soviet Empire of the 20th century, they may wonder not why it collapsed but how it lasted so long.