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Another technology that could help bury the networks is fiber-optic cable, which can greatly increase the number of channels brought into the home. Fiber optics will make possible a new array of home services, such as video shopping and information retrieval. The technology could come more quickly, moreover, if telephone companies are allowed to transmit cable programming over fiber- optic lines; the FCC is contemplating asking Congress to permit just that.
The networks have won at least one round in the fight to stay abreast of new technology. High-definition TV, currently being developed by companies in the U.S., Europe and Japan, will provide a picture of much greater resolution and clarity than present ones have. But many different systems are competing for acceptance, and some could not be delivered over broadcast TV without major retooling. Last month, however, the FCC ruled that any HDTV system approved for transmission in the U.S. must not render existing TV sets obsolete. That seems to ensure that the networks will not be left out.
Where will the networks be ten years from now? The doomsday scenarios come in varying shapes and sizes. As the network audience dwindles, one of the Big Three may be forced to close down or sharply curtail its operations. Or all may survive, but merely as three players in a new, more fragmented competition among eight or ten networks (both broadcast and cable) of nearly equal size. More radical transformations may be in store. Tom Winner, executive vice president and media director for Campbell-Mithun-Esty advertising, predicts that the networks "will ultimately be program services selling product to the highest bidder" -- station groups, cable, home video or satellite companies.
Certainly the days of captive audiences and free-spending arrogance are over. "Network television is a mature medium," says Grant Tinker, the former NBC chairman who now runs his own production company. "There is no more audience growth. The universe is what it is." In a survey of top advertisers, Eugene Secunda, professor of marketing at Baruch College in New York City, found that 53% would consider making a significant shift in their ad dollars if the three networks' share dropped to 65%. "You're dealing with inevitable decline," says Secunda. "It's like those folks who kidded themselves that the Roman Empire was going to go on forever. It was an illusion."
But don't run Sermonette just yet. Despite audience erosion, network TV is still the most pervasive mass medium in the country and a powerful tool for advertisers. "I think we've got a long way to go before the house of cards collapses," says Larry Gerbrandt of Paul Kagan Associates. "On any given night, with any given show, they have the ability to attract a predominant share of the TV audience." Alan Gottesman, media analyst at Paine Webber, asserts, "The next thing you will hear will be the turning of the worm. There is an operating cycle of about two years in this business. Each network has gone through a semicataclysmic change in management. If you add two years to that, you come to the bottom of the cycle. This is the bottom."