Video: The Big Boys' Blues

Challenged by cable, VCRs and an audience eager to zap, the networks face the most troubled fall in their history

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-- Syndicated programming -- shows distributed directly to stations rather than through the networks -- has spurted in popularity, both on independent stations and network affiliates. Many of the latter are shoving aside network fare for syndicated shows (on which they can sell more advertising time). The ABC and CBS stations in New York City, for example, have shifted their networks' evening newscasts from 7 p.m. to the less watched 6:30 time period to make room for syndicated game shows.

-- The Fox network, though hampered by a weaker station lineup, has also made an impact on network viewing, especially on Sunday nights. Fox's 21 Jump Street, a teen-oriented cop show, has grabbed a healthy share of the audience at 7 p.m., and the new crime-stopper series America's Most Wanted often beats several network shows in the weekly Nielsen list.

-- VCR machines, exotic and expensive toys just ten years ago, have found their way into 60% of American homes, according to Nielsen. A study by Paul Kagan Associates, a California-based research firm, found that the typical VCR household rents 4 1/2 movies a month, and such viewing has almost certainly cuts into network ratings. More insidiously, the VCR -- and its high-tech sidekick, the remote-control unit -- has encouraged a new, more active method of TV viewing known as "grazing." A survey published last month by Channels magazine found that 75% of all TV homes have remote-control buttons, and nearly half of the button pushers say they switch channels frequently during programming.

All of this has helped depress the numbers that networks live by. A decade ago, the benchmark of prime-time success was a Nielsen rating of 20. (The rating refers to the percentage of total TV homes that are tuned in to a particular show. The "share" refers to the percentage of homes watching TV that are tuned to that show.) In the 1980-81 season, 28 network series achieved a 20 rating or better; last season only nine did. For many weeks last summer, not a single network show cracked the 20-rating level.

The ratings for expensive network specials and sports have also been sinking. The Summer Olympics on NBC drew an average prime-time rating of 17.9, well under the 21.2 promised to advertisers -- and a Bob Beamon long jump away from the 23.2 drawn by ABC for the Summer Games in 1984. NBC, which paid $300 million for the TV rights, will show an unexpected loss because of the compensation time it must give advertisers.

Blockbuster mini-series too have slipped badly in the ratings since the days of Roots and The Winds of War. Because of their high production costs and poor performance in reruns, they are rarely profitable. ABC's 30-hour version of War and Remembrance (the first 18 hours of which will be telecast in November) could lose up to $20 million for the network, ABC executives say, even if it does well in the ratings. These elephantine projects are probably doomed to extinction.

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