(2 of 9)
The Soviet conference is evidence that in their space program, openness is not just political fashion. Says Genevieve Debouzy, of the French space agency: "The seminars that ten years ago would have been given at the Goddard Space Flight Center are now given in Moscow." To the surprise of Americans, the Soviets' well-deserved reputation for a plodding, low-tech, assembly-line approach to space exploration has paid off. Says James Beggs, former NASA administrator: "There's been a habit in this country of thinking of the Soviets as stupid and that they steal all their technology. That's just not so."
Indeed, space experts in the U.S. and Europe are now conceding publicly what they would have found laughable a decade ago: although the Soviets lag far behind in electronic gadgetry, they have surged past the U.S. in almost all areas of space exploration. If unchallenged, Moscow is likely to become the world's dominant power in space by the 21st century. Says Heinz Hermann Koelle, a West German space-technology professor and former director of future projects at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center: "American pre-eminence in space simply no longer exists." Warns James Oberg, an expert on the Soviet space program: "If the Soviets can aggressively exploit this operational advantage, they can make us eat space dust for a long time to come."
In sheer numbers of launches per year, the Soviets inched past the U.S. in 1967, 66 to 58, and have stayed in front since. In 1982 they sent up 101 space shots, in contrast to 18 by the U.S. More impressive, Soviet cosmonauts have logged some 14 man-years in space, against less than five for U.S. astronauts. The knowledge of Soviet doctors and researchers about the medical and psychological consequences of long-term space habitation far outstrips that of their American counterparts. And with the twin Vega space probes, which photographed Halley's comet in 1986, Soviet scientists consolidated their reputation for gathering impressive scientific data from space.
The Soviets' launch capability took a quantum leap earlier this year when they successfully fired off Energia, a booster as powerful as the mighty Saturn 5, which the U.S. developed for the Apollo program and then scrapped in favor of the shuttle. With Energia, the Soviets can loft 100-ton payloads, vs. a maximum for the U.S. shuttle of 30 tons. That is enough to carry their shuttle, which is under development, or to orbit parts for a space station far larger than Mir, which could be a platform for a manned mission to Mars. Says Dale Myers, deputy administrator at NASA: "Energia is a pretty impressive machine. I would sure like to have it."
For all these accomplishments, Soviet microelectronics and computers are ten years behind those of the U.S. Military satellites sometimes break down in a matter of weeks. Photoreconnaissance satellites literally drop their film to earth for processing. The ultraconservative Soviet military is just now beginning to experiment with the techniques of electronic imaging developed by U.S. scientists years ago. Still, admits Geoffrey Briggs, NASA's director of solar-system exploration, "it's not clear that you need state of the art to be effective."