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The 50 or so planned papal speeches have been drafted by U.S. writers and revised by the American prelate in the Vatican with the most regular access to the Pope. He is Archbishop Justin Rigali, a Los Angeles native who heads both the Holy See's diplomatic school and the English-language section of the Secretariat of State. Vatican insiders expect that John Paul will reaffirm some of his basic policies but without scolding. Says Vatican Press Spokesman Joaquin Navarro-Valls: "He will convince not with authority but affection."
Papal powers over lay opinion and action are limited in any case. What matters more is John Paul's handling of the bishops, as well as priests and sisters involved in the local, day-to-day operation of the American church. Despite the concern of some conservative Catholics, there is little indication that the Pope is worried about the involvement of bishops and theologians in the antinuclear campaign and other social issues. But Rome has many other worries, particularly a growing personnel shortage, which could radically change the way the church's work is done.
The most dramatic decline involves women in U.S. religious orders. Since 1966, their total has dropped from 181,000 to 114,000. A far more disastrous loss lies ahead, because the average age of sisters is now 62, and the number of novices is extremely low. Partly on account of the loss of nuns and the rising costs that result, overall parochial-school enrollments have dropped in the same period, from 5.6 million to 2.9 million, despite an influx of non- Catholic students in some urban schools.
Sisters, meanwhile, have joined the laity in proclaiming women's grievances. A new round of rage could occur later this year if, as expected, the Sisters of Notre Dame de Namur bow to Vatican pressure and oust Sisters Barbara Ferraro and Patricia Hussey of Charleston, W. Va. Since signing a 1984 newspaper ad, they have refused to stop advocating a pro-choice abortion stance. Chicago's Sister Margaret Traxler, who also signed that ad, intends to organize a nuns' strike if they are expelled. Says she: "It's difficult for the Pope and bishops suddenly in this day to realize they can't control women's bodies."
The numbers crunch among priests is not quite so severe. Resignations have slowed considerably since the period of 1966-74, when one out of seven -- 10,000 in all -- left the priesthood. Nonetheless, 44% of U.S. priests are 56 or older, compared with 26% in 1970, and they are not being replaced. Says Father Joseph Meehan of Philadelphia: "It's been an extremely long time since I talked to someone who was seriously considering the priesthood." Enrollment in postcollege seminaries has dropped from 8,887 in 1965 to the current 4,039. By the year 2000, one study predicts, there will be half as many priests as there were in 1970.