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The Pontiff will also acknowledge the ethnic mosaic of American Catholicism. In New Orleans, he will meet black Catholics and in Phoenix, Native Americans. Most important, John Paul will give long-overdue attention to the Spanish- speaking faithful. Fordham University Sociologist Joseph Fitzpatrick, a Jesuit, estimates that by the year 2050 they will form a majority of U.S. Catholics; in choosing to visit the heavily Hispanic archdioceses of Miami, San Antonio and Los Angeles, says Fitzpatrick, "the Pope is addressing the future of the church in the United States."
Nonetheless, the present church in the U.S. will not be far from his thoughts. America's 53 million members constitute the fourth largest Catholic community in the world (after those of Brazil, Mexico and Italy). The American church is powerful and wealthy. Says a Vatican official: "America dominates not only in terms of jeans and running shoes. The U.S. is a moral force in the world, and that's what makes this trip special."
The breadth of the problems that concern John Paul about Catholicism in America is indicated in a poll for TIME by Yankelovich Clancy Shulman.* An overwhelming 93% of those who say they consider themselves Catholic believe "it is possible to disagree with the Pope and still be a good Catholic." Asked if it is permissible for Catholics to "make up their own minds" on such moral issues as birth control and abortion, 78% say yes. A 53% majority believes that the Pope is infallible when formally pronouncing on doctrines like the divinity of Christ, but only 37% accept the infallibility of papal teaching on moral issues.
Surprisingly, American Catholic opinions on abortion do not differ greatly from those of Protestants. Only 14% of Catholics polled agree with their church's teaching that abortion should be illegal in all cases, as do 12% of Protestants; 57% and 52%, respectively, would allow abortion under certain conditions, such as a pregnancy endangering the mother's health or resulting from rape; a mere 27% of Catholics and 34% of Protestants believe that a woman should be able to get an abortion no matter what the reason -- as current U.S. law allows until the fetus is viable.
On other ecclesiastical issues currently in question, majorities of Catholics in the TIME poll favor permitting women priests (52%), married priests (53%) and remarriage in church for the divorced (76%). Only 24% consider artificial birth control wrong, despite the church's teaching, and a remarkably low 29% think that premarital sex is always wrong (as do 35% of Protestants). On the other hand, 68% agree with the Pope that homosexual acts are morally wrong. Many Catholics think important changes in their church can be expected during the next 25 years: remarriage in the church after divorce (predicted by 66%), married priests (62%), women priests (48%) and approval of artificial birth control (42%).