(3 of 3)
Since colonial times the commerce and transport of South Africa and its black neighbors have been closely interwoven. In fact, as Pik Botha was quick to emphasize, even while Mugabe was speaking out against Pretoria at the London meeting, Zimbabwe was negotiating to extend its existing trade agreement with South Africa. Over the long term the black states can reduce their dependence on the South African ports of Durban and Port Elizabeth by developing alternative trade routes, like the existing but inadequate highway and rail line between Zambia and the Tanzanian port of Dar es Salaam. Zimbabwe will begin to divert freight from South Africa to Mozambique over roads and rail lines that are frequently sabotaged by Mozambican rebels supported from inside South Africa. But for the moment Pretoria's black neighbors are exceedingly vulnerable.
In Washington the White House denounced the South African action as "counterproductive" and "polarizing." The Administration was still trying to delay congressional action on sanctions, at least until after the European Community's September meeting. In the meantime, having previously suggested that it was thinking of sending a black Ambassador to Pretoria, Washington was embarrassed last week when a second reported candidate, Ambassador to Denmark Terence Todman, said he did not want the job.
Less than a month after North Carolina Businessman Robert J. Brown removed himself from consideration, Todman, a native of the U.S. Virgin Islands who has held five ambassadorial posts, said in Copenhagen that he did not believe anyone should be appointed to succeed retiring Ambassador Herman Nickel until the U.S. has a "policy that finds credibility with the South Africans . . . and the rest of the world." A day later the State Department contended that Todman had not meant to criticize U.S. policy and had been quoted "out of context." In any event he obviously had no wish to take on the probably thankless assignment in Pretoria.
Black South Africans who reject sanctions, like Zulu Chief Mangosuthu Buthelezi, are finding their position increasingly difficult. Last week he denounced President Botha's confrontational "Boer War diplomacy" and warned of a "time when the government's actions (will) demand that I revise my & position." This week Botha will address an important federal congress of his ruling National Party in Durban. Speaking in the same city last year, Botha gravely disappointed Western governments by failing to include in his address a list of widely anticipated racial reforms. This year Botha was simply expected to hang tough, and so there was little hope that he would say anything encouraging about releasing Nelson Mandela or negotiating with black leaders. On the contrary, as his government moves toward stricter controls and security measures, the prospect is for less flexibility than there was before -- and there was never very much.