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Few of his countrymen would argue with that assessment. The mood in Manila, thick with political tension ever since Marcos issued his surprise election call, grew even more claustrophobic last week with the latest campaign soundings. The rumor mills that grind endlessly in the city's crowded coffeehouses increased their outpourings of speculation. Fears flew that Marcos might try to cancel the balloting, a possibility that he has never quite rejected. Opponents of the President were worried that he intended to rig the election contest even more blatantly than other votes have been altered in the past. If that happened, they warned darkly, Aquino supporters by the tens of thousands would take to the streets. The Philippines, said Jose ("Peping") Cojuangco, Aquino's campaign manager, was "a powder keg." Agreed Jaime Ongpin, a wealthy businessman and key Aquino campaign adviser: "I have never felt more uncertain about the future than I do now."
That sentiment is widely shared in the Philippines and in Washington. In both places, there is a near overwhelming sense that a chapter of history is almost over: the Marcos era. Over the two decades since his first democratic election in 1965, the President has run the gamut of transformation, changing from a populist reformer to a modernizing strongman to, in recent years, a fading and often grotesque shadow of his former authoritarian self. In the process, he has profoundly changed his country, at times in the past for the better, but of late decidedly for the worse.
Now events in the sprawling Pacific archipelago appear to be moving rapidly beyond Marcos' fading ability to control them with anything like the skill and ruthlessness that he so often displayed in the past. While the President continues to hold sway in the Spanish colonial-style Malacanang Palace, the vacuum of authority outside the palace has reached alarming proportions. Among other things, it has led U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Paul Wolfowitz to warn that the Philippines is heading toward "civil war on a massive scale" within three to five years if the insurgency spearheaded by the Communist New People's Army continues to grow (see following story).
A major cause of the political deterioration is the shaky economy. Gross domestic product has declined by nearly 10% in the past two years, and in real per capita terms now stands no higher than in 1972. Underemployment among the 21 million-member work force is estimated at 40%. Foreign debt exceeds $26 billion. These results may seem no worse than those of many Third World countries, except that the Philippines lies within the most economically dynamic region in the world. Marcos blames much of the country's doldrums on external causes. His critics, who now include most of the influential Philippine business community, place much of the blame for the stagnation on the regime's practices of economic favoritism, known locally as "crony capitalism."
Ricardo Pagusara, 24, a college dropout in the southern Philippine port , city of Cebu, puts the country's immediate dilemma more simply. Says he: "Respect for the present government is fast disappearing. People have become so desperate that they are willing to gamble with a new, untried person." Says Enrique Zobel, a prominent pro-Marcos businessman: "The people simply want a change."