(11 of 11)
As the final days of the campaign tick away, the level of political tension engendered by the battle can only increase. So too will the diplomatic challenge for the U.S. To the Administration's credit, policy toward the Philippines is more coherent than that on any other recent foreign challenge of similar magnitude. In contrast to the situation in Iran during the final days of the Shah, U.S. diplomats are in close contact with the opposition. Unlike Central America, the Philippines has created no major divisions between Congress and the White House, nor among the various Executive departments.
By officially adopting a hands-off stance toward the election outcome, the Reagan Administration has now swung almost as far away as possible from its earlier fond embrace of Marcos. To U.S. policymakers, a sure sign that Washington is now perceived as being impartial is that, as one diplomat says, "neither side is happy with us."
The onetime U.S. role as a colonial overlord is still firmly fixed in the minds of many Filipinos. Any direct threats against a Philippine government, even one that had rigged an election, would be widely resented. But Marcos is also on notice that he cannot count on any U.S. support whatsoever in case of civic upheaval brought on by voter fraud. Nor is it likely that either domestic or international business confidence in the Philippines would return to normal with a cloud of that magnitude hanging over the political horizon.
The important thing, as Ambassador Bosworth told a Philippine audience last year, is that the U.S. recognizes that its permanent interest in the Philippines lies not with any particular government but with the values the two countries have come to share during their long and intimate association. Said Bosworth: "We will be judged--and we will judge ourselves--by the fate of democracy in this country and by the success of your national efforts to strengthen your democratic institutions and to ensure that they function effectively. We have a moral and political stake in a democratic Philippines, which transcends all our other interests here, strategic as well as economic."
The kind of democracy Bosworth was talking about is not a matter of authoritarianism decked out with consultative rituals and slogans. It clearly involves the removal of the deformations that Marcos has introduced to the Philippine political system. No matter who wins the election, Washington seems to be willing to adhere to that position, a fact that is not being lost on Filipinos. As Richard Holbrooke, a former Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, puts it, "The only way Marcos can reform is to dismantle his regime."
Only the Philippine people can decide whether Marcos will be forced to do that. As the day for that decision approached, friends of the Philippines in the U.S. could only watch and wait and renew their vows not to abandon their support for the democratic aspirations of a longtime friend and ally, regardless of what turbulence might lie ahead.
FOOTNOTE: *Thailand, Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia, Brunei, the Philippines.