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American officials think they know the locations among which the hostages are moved, like peas in a giant, high-stakes shell game. But even if they were found, their guards would be likely to kill them before the rescuers could prevent it. "We've considered going in for the hostages time and time again for years," says a senior Administration official. "But it's just an exceptionally difficult environment in which to operate." Indeed, the U.S. reportedly knew where Higgins was for several months last year, but Ronald Reagan refused the Pentagon's pleas to be allowed to go in after him because of the risk that the remaining hostages would be killed in retaliation.
A commando raid might not be possible even if Bush ordered one. The U.S. still lacks special units trained for antiterrorist warfare. Though Congress has mandated the establishment of a Special Operations Forces Command, the separate services refuse to cooperate -- the Navy, for instance, will not assign SEAL units to the force -- and Congress has not funded equipment like new MC-130 Combat Talon attack aircraft needed to drop commandos in enemy territory.
The U.S. has met with only limited success when it tried using more conventional forces to hit back at terrorists. When Jimmy Carter dispatched Marine helicopters to rescue the embassy hostages in 1980, the result was wreckage in the desert. Bombing runs over Lebanon in 1983 resulted in the capture of a naval aviator, Lieut. Robert Goodman, who was later retrieved by Jesse Jackson. Only the snatching of the Achille Lauro hijackers and perhaps the 1986 bombing of Libya could be considered effective in reducing terrorist activity.
There is little support in the Pentagon for a military response this time. "What are we supposed to hit?" an admiral asked last week. For the most part, the group has no major command centers outside heavily populated districts, where an American strike would be sure to result in many civilian casualties.
A military strike against Iran would probably doom U.S. hopes to build bridges to Tehran. Any American military action could isolate Washington from Arab countries just as the U.S. is engaged in the delicate process of urging Israel and the Palestinians to negotiate a peaceful settlement concerning the occupation of the West Bank. Such action would also play directly into the hands of Israeli hard-liners. On Friday P.L.O. leader Yasser Arafat opened a congress in Tunis of Al Fatah, the P.L.O.'s chief guerrilla group, the first such meeting since 1980. The discussions may prove critical because Arafat's public declarations calling for negotiations with Israel have brought him under increasing pressure from more extreme elements in the P.L.O.
Though the bombing of Pan Am Flight 103 in December caused the number of U.S. terrorist victims last year to shoot up sharply, hijackings and kidnapings have actually decreased in recent years. A surge of terrorist incidents was expected after the downing of the Iranian Airbus by the U.S.S. Vincennes last July, but it did not take place. French hostages in Lebanon were released last year with the intervention of Iran.