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While Iranian "moderates" have a way of disappointing Western expectations, Rafsanjani is reportedly convinced that Iran failed to win its costly war with Iraq because of its international isolation, which deprived the country of desperately needed military technology and hardware. In a speech Friday, the new Iranian President was remarkably conciliatory: "I tell the White House, the problem of Lebanon has solutions, the freeing of the hostages has solutions, reasonable, prudent solutions." Rafsanjani offered: "Come let us approach the problem reasonably. We too will help solve the problems there."
But the next day Iran was still holding to the line that it had no connection to the hostage takers. Iran's official Islamic Republic News Agency quoted an unidentified foreign ministry official as saying Iran had refused a Bush message about the hostages sent via a third country. "Since the content had nothing to do with Iran," the news agency quoted the official as saying, "the message was not accepted." Tehran's denials were contradicted by an Israeli intelligence report claiming that Obeid had confessed that Hizballah's terrorist activities were directed by the Iranian embassies in Beirut and Damascus.
Even so, Rafsanjani's earlier words of conciliation toward a nation the Ayatullah Khomeini labeled the Great Satan indicate a major change since Khomeini's death in June. Rafsanjani appears to have moved with surprising quickness to consolidate his leadership against challenges from more radical mullahs, particularly Interior Minister Ali Akbar Mohtashami, the principal link between Tehran and Hizballah in Lebanon. There are signs that the new President is also gaining influence over Hizballah, as he must if he is to deliver on any promises to help in the hostage situation. When Hizballah leaders went to Tehran several weeks ago to express their condolences over Khomeini's death, they reported directly to Rafsanjani. He is believed to have dispatched his own men to Lebanon to bring into line pockets of Hizballah, including those loyal to Obeid, that still support Mohtashami.
But it is still far too early for the U.S. to draw firm conclusions about Rafsanjani. Virtually everything in the region is so riddled with confusion that no one last week could say for sure whether Higgins was executed on Monday, as his captors claimed, or months ago and the tape of his execution saved for use at a later, advantageous moment. It was not even certain that it was Higgins whose body was shown in the tape. Forensic experts at the FBI were carefully measuring and comparing the features of the man in the videotape with photographs of the captured Marine.
If it was Higgins, both the CIA and Israeli intelligence -- as well as Bush -- believe he was killed much earlier than last week. Intelligence specialists point to a number of anomalies that make them doubt his captors' account of when and how he died. For one thing, Higgins' captors announced last December that he had been sentenced to death after making a full confession of espionage activities.
For another, the figure in the videotape showed no physical signs of hanging, such as bulging eyes and extruding tongue. He was dressed in a parka or sweater, which seems unlikely in the middle of a Middle East summer.